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Higher timeframe analysis of Currency Strength / Weakness

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  • #1
  • First Post: Edited Sep 29, 12:55pm Sep 25, 2026 6:17pm | Edited Sep 29, 12:55pm
The goal is to analyze (manually, by using 28 pairs) the currency strength and weakness and use basic price action principles to trade by using one stronger currency and one weaker currency for higher probability trades. The analysis is done on Daily timeframe while H4/H1/M15 timeframes are also used for analysis and trade trigger. The charts for these pairs will be looked at and trades taken especially during London and New York sessions when liquidity is high.

Trend and price action analysis is done and the stronger currencies are paired with the weaker currencies. The trade is entered when the currency pair retraces and gets rejected and continues in the trend direction.

Below is the result of the analysis on Daily charts after the markets closed on September 25th , 2026:

EURJPY SELL
GBPJPY SELL
CADJPY SELL ( Please be aware of the volatility wrt Oil and CAD due to the Iran war. I would avoid CAD pairs except for analysis )
CHFJPY SELL
NZDJPY SELL
AUDJPY SELL ( Please be aware of the interest rate decision for AUD. I would avoid AUDJPY until after the news especially as JPY is also strong)
EURUSD BUY
AUDUSD BUY ( Trading into the news )

JPY is strong across the board. Please refer to the fundamental news related to JPY to understand the reason behind the strength and even higher probability trades.


"Money Flow Index" ( Calculated manually by scanning the trends across 28 pairs ) = 14 ( Higher this number, the better )

I have used Big E system (https://forex.com.bd/thread/...ng-made-simple) for some of the indicators (Thank you, Big E ) and some of TMS system concepts and combined currency strength concepts as well as price action concepts to come up with my analysis.

Indicators and Template for MT5:
Attached File(s)
File Type: tpl 200EMA_5EMA_TDI.tpl   19 KB | 28 downloads | Uploaded Sep 27, 2026 4:51pm

Attached File(s)
File Type: mq5 Spread.mq5   7 KB | 18 downloads | Uploaded Sep 27, 2026 4:49pm

Attached File(s)
File Type: ex5 Heiken Ashi Button.ex5   33 KB | 33 downloads

Attached File(s)
File Type: ex5 ShowPips_MT5.ex5   23 KB | 33 downloads

Attached File(s)
File Type: mq5 Symbol_Changer_Profit_v3_SUB WINDOW_NEW.mq5   16 KB | 39 downloads

Attached File(s)
File Type: ex5 Traders Dynamic Index (alerts)(1).ex5   50 KB | 31 downloads


The Excel spreadsheet in which i do my analysis is attached here ---->
Attached File(s)
File Type: xlsx Pairs_Analysis.xlsx   27 KB | 6 downloads | Uploaded Sep 29, 2026 12:55pm
  • #2
  • Sep 25, 2026 6:21pm Sep 25, 2026 6:21pm
GBPJPY charts on D1 AND H4 ( Indicating a potentially strong downward move )
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  • #3
  • Edited 8:34pm Sep 25, 2026 6:44pm | Edited 8:34pm
Trades closed for profit based on this analysis done on September 22nd, 2026.

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"Money Flow Index" was calculated to be 20
  • #4
  • Sep 26, 2026 10:51am Sep 26, 2026 10:51am
Quoting Smmtrader
Trades closed for profit based on this analysis done on September 22nd, 2026. {image} "Money Flow Index" was calculated to be 20
Hello Smmtrader, nice setup you have there, if i undestand well you analyze D1/H4/H1 to be in same direction (price over the 5 and 200 ema and tdi cross upward and viceversa for sell)all 3 htf being the same, my question is where is M15 trigger/entry, if you have time can you post an image with that?
Thanks in advance!
  • #5
  • Edited 4:04pm Sep 26, 2026 11:29am | Edited 4:04pm
Quoting Catalin1906
{quote} Hello Smmtrader, nice setup you have there, if i undestand well you analyze D1/H4/H1 to be in same direction (price over the 5 and 200 ema and tdi cross upward and viceversa for sell)all 3 htf being the same, my question is where is M15 trigger/entry, if you have time can you post an image with that? Thanks in advance!
Hello Catalin1906, please see the screenshot below. On M15, GBPUSD retraces upwards and gets rejected to continue in the downward trend direction ( pointed to by the arrows ) and TDI turns downwards. My entry would be around that area.
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  • #6
  • Sep 26, 2026 8:59pm Sep 26, 2026 8:59pm
Remember to draw the horizontal S/R levels on Daily chart for the pairs under consideration. These could act as strong support / resistance levels and even serve as profit targets. Also look for levels on Daily and Weekly where 200 EMA is likely to act as a strong support / resistance.

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  • #7
  • Edited 9:39pm Sep 26, 2026 9:29pm | Edited 9:39pm
Looking to trade EURUSD (BUY) as well ( EUR has been gaining strength while USD has been losing strength over the past 3 to 4 days - check the excel in post one )
and AUDUSD (BUY) as well ( AUD's interest rate is expected to go up - we can use this to trade into the news )

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  • #8
  • Sep 27, 2026 4:13am Sep 27, 2026 4:13am
Quoting Smmtrader
{quote} Hello Catalin1906, please see the screenshot below. On M15, GBPUSD retraces upwards and gets rejected to continue in the downward trend direction ( pointed to by the arrows ) and TDI turns downwards. My entry would be around that area.{image}
thanks for your quick response, i will take that into consideration and look into your daily posts, thanks again and manny incoming posivive pips
  • #9
  • Sep 27, 2026 11:02am Sep 27, 2026 11:02am
Quoting Catalin1906
{quote} thanks for your quick response, i will take that into consideration and look into your daily posts, thanks again and manny incoming posivive pips
You are welcome. Green pips!!!

Welcome to the thread.
  • #10
  • Sep 27, 2026 3:56pm Sep 27, 2026 3:56pm
Do not forget to use proper risk management. This is critical for long term success. if you are a beginner, please do not risk more than 0.5 to 1 % on all trades together running in your account.
  • #11
  • Sep 27, 2026 5:44pm Sep 27, 2026 5:44pm
Quoting Smmtrader
The goal is to analyze (manually, by using 28 pairs) the currency strength and weakness and use basic price action principles to trade by using one stronger currency and one weaker currency for higher probability trades. The analysis is done on Daily timeframe while H4/H1/M15 timeframes are also used for analysis and trade trigger. The charts for these pairs will be looked at and trades taken especially during London and New York sessions when liquidity is high. Trend and price action analysis is done and the stronger currencies are paired with...
All the pairs listed are retracing. Wait for a reject and a strong candle with a nice signal from TDI before entering the trades. I usually watch the M15 timeframe for a trigger signal.
  • #12
  • Sep 27, 2026 9:49pm Sep 27, 2026 9:49pm
EURUSD and AUDUSD:

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  • #13
  • Edited 10:06pm Sep 27, 2026 9:50pm | Edited 10:06pm
Quoting Smmtrader
Looking to trade EURUSD (BUY) as well ( EUR has been gaining strength while USD has been losing strength over the past 3 to 4 days - check the excel in post one ) and AUDUSD (BUY) as well ( AUD's interest rate is expected to go up - we can use this to trade into the news ) {image} {image}
As mentioned here...both AUDUSD and EURUSD have turned bullish.
  • #14
  • Sep 27, 2026 11:49pm Sep 27, 2026 11:49pm
Hi , Smmtrader
I agree with you JPY is strong across the board
BUT both AUDUSD and EURUSD i think this correction bullish
  • #15
  • Sep 28, 2026 1:07am Sep 28, 2026 1:07am
Some of the JPY pairs have started going down:

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  • #16
  • Edited 1:53am Sep 28, 2026 1:43am | Edited 1:53am
Total pips gained so far today: 253
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  • #17
  • Edited 3:26am Sep 28, 3:04am (47 hr ago) | Edited 3:26am
Markets are on the move today: 508 pips so far.

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  • #18
  • Sep 28, 3:08am (47 hr ago) Sep 28, 3:08am (47 hr ago)
Exited all trades for a good profit. ( The JPY pairs reached 4 HR PA zone )
  • #19
  • Sep 28, 4:30am (45 hr ago) Sep 28, 4:30am (45 hr ago)
CHFJPY H4, GBPJPY H4, NZDJPY
I closed half of the positions; the other half is still running.
What do you think, Smmtrader—should I still hold onto the remaining halves of the trades?
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  • #20
  • Sep 28, 4:40am (45 hr ago) Sep 28, 4:40am (45 hr ago)
Quoting pusztafie
CHFJPY H4, GBPJPY H4, NZDJPY I closed half of the positions; the other half is still running. What do you think, Smmtrader—should I still hold onto the remaining halves of the trades? {image} {image} {image}
Nice charts

I am holding sell AUDJPY, EURJPY and GBPJPY on H2
Swing Trader
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