Gold Levels

Welcome to the thread.
Do what you want no restrictions.
This is as much a trading journal as it is a system.

Levels are calculated daily using gold futures options

Trades are taken in the spot market

Some prior knowledge of options will be helpful but not necessary to use the levels.

1.System outline
Gamma is calculated daily using the front month gold option contract.
Put walls and call walls are added as well as any pinning levles.
An outline for the day is then produced and posted.

2. Enteris are taken using the futures market high vol nodes and order book imbalance and all this is relayed to the spot market with charts posted from mt4

which looks something like this:

Todays levels

4100 is major resistance
4000 is major support with very good support at 4050


Reasoning


Key trading map
4000 — dominant downside level
This is the strongest negative gamma strike and the put wall.

1. First test may attract substantial two-way activity.
2. Holding above it could produce a sharp rebound.
3. Acceptance below it could trigger hedging acceleration.

For Sierra, watch for buying absorption and failure to continue lower before considering a long. Do not assume the wall will automatically hold.
4020–4025 — secondary support
Fresh put positioning was added around this area. It is the first meaningful support zone above 4000.
4050 — primary pivot and pin
Call and put gamma are closely balanced here, with sizeable OI on both sides.
This should behave as the principal intraday decision level:

1. above 4050: scope toward 4075–4086;
2. below 4050: risk increases toward 4025 and 4000.

4075–4086 — transition zone
This contains:

1. sizeable two-sided gamma,
2. the gamma flip at 4085.7,
3. a likely volatility-regime transition.

A clean acceptance above 4086 is more important than merely touching it.
4100 — call wall and strongest positive gamma
This is the most important overhead resistance. It also received substantial fresh call OI.

1. Initial approach may stall or mean-revert.
2. Acceptance above 4100 could force the market toward 4125 and 4150.
3. Rejection with negative delta would favour a move back toward 4086 or 4075.

4125 and 4150 — upside targets

1. 4125: secondary call concentration.
2. 4150: major OI wall, but less immediate gamma than 4100 because it is farther from the current price.

Todays expected range

Result 261 pips




slow trade but it is option expiry today at 1.30pm and pinning to the 4100 call wall was always a possibilty. Tomorrow afternoon should now see gold move more freely and breakout before retracing back towards the end of the month. The channel has been set for the false break and then large move



levels to follow

Following with interest, dont know a lot about futures but have been working on a way of collating meaningful data and applying it to spot market.

As today is the option expiry for the futures I am going to be using the ETF gamma chart.

current environment is negative gamma so dealers will be selling moves down and buying moves up.



There is large negative gamma at 370 on the GLD etf. The etf has huge volume and could see the launch pad for today after option expiry. (north or south)



i'm going to be looking for longs coming into the us open at the 4016 level but below there we could be looking at fresh lows down to 3850

results from yesterdays trade.

I added 2 positions last night as we came back down into 4015 area.

I did not mean to close out all 3 so I added the third back in. This is my core position

With yesterdays expiry a large amount of negative gamma has gone

 

1. Dealers have bought back short gamma as positions were closed or rolled.
2. The expiring options have dropped out, removing a large source of negative gamma.
3. New positioning has been established in later expiries, creating more positive gamma.
4. Price has moved onto the positive side of the flip, changing the overall dealer hedging regime.

This is bullish for market stability, not necessarily bullish for price.
A more positive gamma environment usually means:

1. Smaller intraday ranges.
2. More mean reversion.
3. Failed breakouts become more common.
4. Price tends to gravitate toward large positive gamma strikes.

FOMC tonight so any predictions are hard to make but in a positve gamma envirnoment breakouts tend to fail. Lows and highs are swept with mean revision

futures Gamma calculations and walls

Core results


Immediate call wall 4100

Structural call wall4300–4500

Immediate put wall 4050 / 4000

Largest downside put wall3900

Max pain4250

price is currently ranging between 2 put walls


Put walls
Immediate put wall: 4050
At 4050:

1. Calls: 644
2. Puts: 1,305
3. New calls: +28
4. New puts: +111
5. Approximate net strike GEX: –$21.8m

This is the most important nearby downside level because it combines:

1. proximity to current price,
2. substantial put OI,
3. elevated ATM gamma,
4. and fresh put accumulation.

Major put support: 4000
At 4000:

1. Calls: 136
2. Puts: 1,783
3. Approximate net strike GEX: –$27.2m

A sustained break below 4000 would move price deeper into the negative-gamma put structure.
Largest negative-gamma strike: 3900
At 3900:

1. Calls: 6
2. Puts: 2,927
3. New puts: +260
4. Approximate net strike GEX: –$48.2m

This is the largest downside gamma concentration in OGU6, but it is too far below spot to be the primary intraday wall unless gold enters a larger liquidation.

possible trade for today

sweep the lows and move up


4000 should be a solid level

Awesome thread. Also using this gex levels for targets and stuff. But what does max pain mean? Thank you

max pain is the biggest loss for both puts and calls based on any contract. 14 days before expiry we tend to make a move to max pain then pull off the level going into expiry

[quote=Asylum1;15829156] so yiu mean it a bullish move

note for Journal

taken the 4050 call exp friday. should see 4100 level broken futures. (4050 spot)

fomc meeting tonight. reluctant to lower interest rates any doveish tone would see move to the upside.

4000 level spot working well for now.

[quote=Pureofgold;15829165] maybe. no one knows for sure but there is defintly an upside skew with large support at 3900 as a launch pad

Though i also was thinking my raw price action was right buh just following the algo anyway
I was looking for 3960 as it stands to hit target buh and according to this data it says the fed already looks hawkish meaning buh first time using this macro book. Can anyone see whats going on in my screenshot

[quote=Asylum1;15829209][quote=Pureofgold;15829165]{quote} i guess you are right am on a prop firm trade so just exited my sell off and followed yours cos it aligns with certain part of my setup bro

result 462 pips. liquidity just taken. with fomc looming out of trades

bro who thought you trading.you were soo right

bit of a mixed bag today. futures saying one thing and gld etf capping the price at the highs.

gld etf currently range bound between 376 top of the call wall and 370 yesterdays call wall



if you match it to mt4 you can get the levels on mt4

futures very bullish with calls being added all the way upto 4500


Secondary Call Walls
StrikeNew Calls
4500+476
4350+407
4200+401
4270+400
4250+228
4400+227
4100+216
Notice that institutions didn't just buy 4300.
They added calls almost continuously from:
4100 → 4200 → 4250 → 4270 → 4300 → 4350 → 4400 → 4500
That looks like an institution positioning for a continued advance rather than a single strike hedge.