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EUR Money Markets: Tightening as intended
The European Central Bank faces a challenging backdrop of renewed energy market stress alongside surprisingly resilient economic growth, as reflected in the latest flash PMIs. This mix has pushed short-end rates to price in a tightening cycle that sees three to four more hikes over the next year. We think this is too much and expect only one more hike from the ECB, taking the deposit facility rate to 2.75%. But we have to acknowledge that this outlook largely hinges on the assumption that geopolitical tensions will start to ease after the US mid-term elections. Liquidity conditions tighten and approaching critical ... (full story)