Remove Seasonality before applying SARIMA model on weekly data?
Remove Seasonality before applying SARIMA model on weekly data?
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Kriti · External communityPost link
External question — Data Science Stack Exchange
Author: Kriti
Original post: https://datascience.stackexchange.com/questions/121039
License: CC BY-SA 4.0 — https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/
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I am trying to predict average weekly stock prices for time series data.
Steps I followed:
I tested the data to check whether it was stationary or not using
ADF
and
KPSS
tests.
Next, to make the data stationary - I normalized the data using
StandardScaler
, Removed the trend by taking the first difference, removed the increasing volatility, removed seasonality
I then plotted
ACF
and
PACF
graphs to identify the
MA
and
AR
lags.
I modelled the values for
ARIMA
model and it seems to give an awful performance
I was thinking to apply
SARIMA
model next, but I am not sure if I should have removed seasonality before since
SARIMA
takes seasonality into account.
I would really appreciate your thoughts on this.
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pigsalaciarat · External communityPost link
External answer — Data Science Stack Exchange
Author: pigsalaciarat
Original post: https://datascience.stackexchange.com/a/121040
License: CC BY-SA 4.0 — https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/
Adaptation: HTML converted to plain text; contact email addresses removed.
As for SARIMA, it's definitely a good idea to take seasonality into account, but it may depend on the specifics of your data. Have you tried looking at the seasonal decomposition of your time series? That could help you determine whether you need to include seasonality in your model.
Also, keep in mind that sometimes even the best models can give poor performance. It might be worth exploring other methods of prediction, such as machine learning algorithms or hybrid models.
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Quoted from Forex.com.bd-Editorial External answer — Data Science Stack Exchange Author: pigsalaciarat Source score (net votes, not local likes): 1 Original post: https://datascience.stackexchange.com/a/121040 License: CC BY-SA 4.0 — https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/ Adaptation: HTML converted to plain text; contact email addresses removed. As for SARIMA, it's definitely a good idea to take seasonality into account, but it may depend on the specifics of your data. Have you tried looking at the seasonal decomposition of your time series? That could help you determine whether you need to include seasonality in your model. Also, keep in mind that sometimes even the best models can give poor performance. It might be worth exploring other methods of prediction, such as machine learning algorithms or hybrid models.
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