How to know if currency pair is going up with COT(commitment of traders) Analysis?
How to know if currency pair is going up with COT(commitment of traders) Analysis?
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Pretty_Girl · External communityPost link
External question — Personal Finance Stack Exchange
Author: Pretty_Girl
Original post: https://money.stackexchange.com/questions/81664
License: CC BY-SA 3.0 — https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/
Adaptation: HTML converted to plain text; contact email addresses removed.
Some
forex
(foreign exchange) traders read the
COT
(Commitment of traders) report issued by
CFTC
(
http://www.cftc.gov
), to understand in which way the currency pair (Eg:
EUR/USD
) is heading and how much the
large speculators
hold currency positions and how much they closed.
But, it contains only the data of single currency (
EUR
etc), not a pair (
EUR/USD
etc).
Eg: Following is the latest report issued by
CFTC
EURO FX - CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE
Commitments of Traders - Futures Only, July 03, 2017
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: Total : Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Positions
: Open : Non-Commercial : Commercial : Total :
: Interest : Long : Short : Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: : (CONTRACTS OF EUR 125,000) :
: : :
All : 422,496: 185,925 108,461 15,675 144,260 244,301 345,860 368,437: 76,636 54,059
Old : 422,496: 185,925 108,461 15,675 144,260 244,301 345,860 368,437: 76,636 54,059
Other: 0: 0 0 0 0 0 0 0: 0 0
: : :
: : Changes in Commitments from: June 27, 2017 :
: 21,936: 6,254 -12,515 1,255 8,126 32,662 15,635 21,402: 6,301 534
: : :
: : Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
All : 100.0: 44.0 25.7 3.7 34.1 57.8 81.9 87.2: 18.1 12.8
Old : 100.0: 44.0 25.7 3.7 34.1 57.8 81.9 87.2: 18.1 12.8
Other: 100.0: 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0: 0.0 0.0
: : :
:# Traders : Number of Traders in Each Category :
All : 250: 97 57 40 60 65 175 145:
Old : 250: 97 57 40 60 65 175 145:
Other: 0: 0 0 0 0 0 0 0:
:----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: Percent of Open Interest Held by the Indicated Number of the Largest Traders
: By Gross Position By Net Position
: 4 or Less Traders 8 or Less Traders 4 or Less Traders 8 or Less Traders
: Long: Short Long Short: Long Short Long Short
:----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
All : 22.8 31.3 31.8 44.1 22.5 31.3 31.4 43.7
Old : 22.8 31.3 31.8 44.1 22.5 31.3 31.4 43.7
Other: 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
I can see that the
Non-commercial
investors have
185,925 long positions
while they only hold
108,461 short positions
. But it's only the single currency of
EURO
. But how to tell that a currency pair is going up (or down)?
P.S
: I apologize previously I have posted the wrong report. Now I have edited and replaced the correct report with single currency.
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dsolimano · External communityPost link
External answer — Personal Finance Stack Exchange
Author: dsolimano
Original post: https://money.stackexchange.com/a/81665
License: CC BY-SA 3.0 — https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/
Adaptation: HTML converted to plain text; contact email addresses removed.
That tells you it's a cross rate -
EURO FX/BRITISH POUND XRATE
so it's a cross of the euro vs the British pound.
What you have to do for each of these is go to the futures market, which is specified in the report
EURO FX/BRITISH POUND XRATE - CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE Code-299741
Commitments of Traders - Futures Only, July 03, 2017
Find the contract definition based on the description in the file
http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/fx/g10/euro-fx-british-pound_contract_specifications.html
And look up what the details are based on the descriptive data given. Here, the name and the contract basket match between the report and the spec I linked to.
EDIT:
For the new report you've edited, the proper contract is
http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/fx/g10/euro-fx_contract_specifications.html
Which as the contract definition specifies, is basically the currency pair
EUR/USD
, which you get from looking at the contract spec, and the rulebook linked from there
http://www.cmegroup.com/rulebook/CME/III/250/261/261.pdf
There is no USD section of the report because this is a report of listed futures contracts - to get the market's activity in a currency pair, you just look at the futures contract for that pair.
In your example, the correct wording is
You can see that the non-commercial investors have 185,925 long positions
while they only hold 108,461 short positions in EUR/USD
And, I would bet you can't forecast which way a currency pair is heading using these reports, for the same reason there aren't hundred dollar bills on the street.
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Quoted from Forex.com.bd-Editorial External question — Personal Finance Stack Exchange Author: Pretty_Girl Source score (net votes, not local likes): -1 Original post: https://money.stackexchange.com/questions/81664 License: CC BY-SA 3.0 — https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/ Adaptation: HTML converted to plain text; contact email addresses removed. Some forex (foreign exchange) traders read the COT (Commitment of traders) report issued by CFTC ( http://www.cftc.gov ), to understand in which way the currency pair (Eg: EUR/USD ) is heading and how much the large speculators hold currency positions and how much they closed. But, it contains only the data of single currency ( EUR etc), not a pair ( EUR/USD etc). Eg: Following is the latest report issued by CFTC EURO FX - CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE Commitments of Traders - Futures Only, July 03, 2017 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Total : Reportable Positions : Nonreportable :---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Positions : Open : Non-Commercial : Commercial : Total : : Interest : Long : Short : Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : (CONTRACTS OF EUR 125,000) : : : : All : 422,496: 185,925 108,461 15,675 144,260 244,301 345,860 368,437: 76,636 54,059 Old : 422,496: 185,925 108,461 15,675 144,260 244,301 345,860 368,437: 76,636 54,059 Other: 0: 0 0 0 0 0 0 0: 0 0 : : : : : Changes in Commitments from: June 27, 2017 : : 21,936: 6,254 -12,515 1,255 8,126 32,662 15,635 21,402: 6,301 534 : : : : : Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader : All : 100.0: 44.0 25.7 3.7 34.1 57.8 81.9 87.2: 18.1 12.8 Old : 100.0: 44.0 25.7 3.7 34.1 57.8 81.9 87.2: 18.1 12.8 Other: 100.0: 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0: 0.0 0.0 : : : :# Traders : Number of Traders in Each Category : All : 250: 97 57 40 60 65 175 145: Old : 250: 97 57 40 60 65 175 145: Other: 0: 0 0 0 0 0 0 0: :---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent of Open Interest Held by the Indicated Number of the Largest Traders : By Gross Position By Net Position : 4 or Less Traders 8 or Less Traders 4 or Less Traders 8 or Less Traders : Long: Short Long Short: Long Short Long Short :---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- All : 22.8 31.3 31.8 44.1 22.5 31.3 31.4 43.7 Old : 22.8 31.3 31.8 44.1 22.5 31.3 31.4 43.7 Other: 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 I can see that the Non-commercial investors have 185,925 long positions while they only hold 108,461 short positions . But it's only the single currency of EURO . But how to tell that a currency pair is going up (or down)? P.S : I apologize previously I have posted the wrong report. Now I have edited and replaced the correct report with single currency.
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