Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen

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BTC and XRP – Prices continue to rise

BTC/USD

The price of Bitcoin has been moving sideways since last week as it came up to $40,000 area but then fell to $33,813 at its lowest point yesterday. This occurred after recovery and now we are seeing another minor one with the price reaching $37,486. Currently, it is being traded slightly lower but is still in an upward trajectory.

Looking at the 4 hour chart, you can see that the price made it slightly below the 0.382 Fib level on Sunday’s low but managed to pull back up above it. This could indicate that support has been found but we are still yet to see if it manages to exceed the local high at the 0.618 Fib level.

The primary scenario is one in which we are seeing an ABC correction of a higher degree and so far this has played out. The downfall below the 0.5 Fibonacci level has confirmed the previously assumed ABC to the upside which is the B wave from the higher degree count.

This is why from here we would be expecting the continuation to the downside, but that might not come as expected. The C wave which was projected to the downside should have been developing a five-wave impulse but has instead made a three-wave decrease followed by a recovery.

Now if the price continues increasing this count might get invalidated but this would potentially still be the part of the correctional count which is set to push the price lower.

XRP/USD

The price of Ripple has been increasing and came up by 13.87% from its yesterday’s low at $0.2714 to $0.309 where it is now being traded.

On the 4-hour chart, you can see that the price broke out from the descending triangle on the upside after the third interaction with the horizontal support level was made. As the price found support there we have seen a bounce that led the price for a breakout and a higher high was made compared to the previous local one.

This could be the start of the 5th wave from the five-wave impulse that started in December last year after the price made the end of the significant downside move. The price hasn’t made it inside the territory of the 1st wave which makes this scenario valid and now if we are seeing the development of the 5th wave it is set to push the price of Ripple higher then on the 7th of January where the ending point of the 3rd wave is.

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EUR/USD Recovering Losses, USD/JPY Remains At Risk

EUR/USD started a downside correction from well above 1.2300 and recently found support near 1.2055. USD/JPY is showing bearish signs and it could decline heavily below 103.50.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/JPY

• The Euro remained well bid above 1.2050 and started a fresh increase.
• There was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance near 1.2120 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.
• USD/JPY is declining and showing bearish signs below the 104.00 resistance.
• There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 103.98 on the hourly chart.
  

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

In the past few days, there was a steady decline in the Euro from well above 1.2200 against the US Dollar. The EUR/USD pair even broke the 1.2120 support level, but it remained well bid above 1.2050.

A low was formed near 1.2053 on FXOpen before the pair is currently recovering losses. There was a break above the 1.2100 resistance level and the 50 hourly simple moving average, opening the doors for a steady increase.

There was also a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance near 1.2120 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD. The pair even broke the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.2222 swing high to 1.2053 low.

An immediate resistance is near the 1.2058 level. It is close to the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.2222 swing high to 1.2053 low. The main resistance is near the 1.2175, above which EUR/USD is likely to accelerate higher.

Conversely, the pair could start a fresh decline below the 1.2135 support. The first major support is near the 1.2115 zone. If there is a downside break below the 1.2115 support zone, the pair could continue to move down. In the stated case, there are high chances of a retest of the 1.2053 swing low in the near term.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

The US Dollar seems to be trading in a broad range below the 104.20 and 104.50 resistance levels against the Japanese Yen. The USD/JPY pair formed a high near 104.08, and recently started a fresh decline.

There was a break below the 103.85 support level the 50 hourly simple moving average. The pair also declined below the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 103.63 low to 104.08 high.

It is now trading near a key support at 103.75. It is close to the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 103.63 low to 104.08 high. If there is a downside break below the 103.75 level, the pair could move towards the main 103.50 support zone.

The stated 103.50 support holds the key, below which the pair could decline heavily in the near term. On the upside, the first major resistance is near the 103.85 level.

There is also a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 103.98 on the hourly chart. A clear break above the trend line is must for a steady increase.

The next key resistance could be near 104.20, above which USD/JPY could revisit 104.50. Any more gains may possibly increase the chances of a test of the 105.00 level in the near term.

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Litecoin and EOS – Bears are in control

LTC/USD

The price of Litecoin has been in a decline since Tuesday when it was sitting at $166.11 and made a downfall to $130 level today, which was a decrease of 21.74%. Now the price is being traded slightly higher but is still in a downward trajectory.

Looking at the hourly chart, you can see that the price made a breakout below the ascending channel that formed since the 11th of January when the price fell to the $112.33 area. From there a recovery was made all the way up above the $160 level but now another impulsive descending move has been seen which is most likely the continuation of the corrective decrease. If this is the three-wave corrective decline from the 10th of January the move to the downside would be expected to continue and surpass the prior low at $112 and could potentially continue all the way down to $82.9.

However, there is a possibility that this is going to be a triangle formation of the higher degree in which this three-wave move could be its first sub-wave. In that case, the price could make another significant recovery before this move to the $82.9 horizontal level. The price has found support at 0.236 Fib level at least a temporary one, so now we are going to see what happens as if it manages to stay up the recovery might come.

EOS/USD

From its Tuesday’s high at $2.926 the price of EOS has decreased by 12.18% as it came down to $2.579 at its lowest wick today. Now the price is looking like it has stabilized above the $2.62 level and is establishing support.

On the hourly chart, you can see that the price has made a breakout from the ascending channel like in the case of Litecoin but the pattern isn’t as similar as the price of EOS made a more significant decrease from the 10th of January till the 11th then it has now since Tuesday. We have seen a decrease of over 37% till the 11th of January and if this descending move is the continuation of that move, the price could be expected to go significantly lower. But another round of hard-selling like it occurred then isn’t likely to play out.

More likely we are going to see a further decrease to some of the horizontal support levels out of which the first one in line would be the 11th January low, but the next one is just below the $2 mark. The price could make another impulsive move to the vicinity of the lower horizontal level, but like in the case of Litecoin that might not come in a straight line.

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AUD/USD and NZD/USD Approaching Next Key Break

AUD/USD is trading well above 0.7700, but is facing hurdles near 0.7780 and 0.7800. NZD/USD is also showing positive signs, but there is a crucial resistance forming near 0.7225-0.7240.

Important Takeaways for AUD/USD and NZD/USD

• The Aussie Dollar started a fresh increase above the 0.7720 resistance levels against the US Dollar.
• There is a major contracting triangle forming with support near 0.7740 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD.
• NZD/USD also climbed higher, but it is facing a strong resistance near 0.7225 and 0.7240.
• A key bullish trend line is forming with support near 0.7185 on the hourly chart of NZD/USD.
  

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

After forming a support base near 0.7660, the Aussie Dollar started a fresh increase against the US Dollar. The AUD/USD pair broke the 0.7700 resistance level to move into a positive zone.

The pair even broke the 0.7720 resistance and settled above the 50 hourly simple moving average. A high is formed near 0.7782 on FXOpen and the pair is currently correcting lower.

There was a break below the 0.7760 support level. The pair even traded below the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 0.7720 swing low to 0.7782 high. It is now testing the 0.7745 support level and the 50 hourly simple moving average.

There is also a major contracting triangle forming with support near 0.7740 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD. The triangle support is close to the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 0.7720 swing low to 0.7782 high.

If there is a downside break below the triangle support, there is a risk of more losses. The next major support on the downside is near the 0.7720 level.

On the upside, the 0.7770 level is an immediate resistance. A clear break above the 0.7770 and 0.7780 levels may possibly open the doors for a larger increase towards 0.7800 and 0.7840 in the coming sessions.

NZD/USD Technical Analysis

The New Zealand Dollar also followed a similar path above the 0.7120 support against the US Dollar. The NZD/USD pair broke the 0.7200 resistance to move back into a positive zone.

However, the pair is facing a strong resistance near the 0.7225 and 0.7240 levels. A high is formed near 0.7225 and the pair is currently correcting lower. It traded below the 0.7200 level, but it is well above the 50 hourly simple moving average.

It is trading just below the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 0.7177 swing low to 0.7225 high. On the downside, there is a key bullish trend line forming with support near 0.7185 on the hourly chart of NZD/USD.

The trend line is close to the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 0.7177 swing low to 0.7225 high. If there is a downside break below the trend line support, there is a risk of more losses towards the 0.7150 and 0.7120 support levels.

Conversely, the pair could remain well bid above the 0.7180 support zone. On the upside, the 0.7225 and 0.7240 levels are crucial hurdles. A clear break and close above the 0.7240 level could set the pace for a strong increase towards the 0.7300 level.

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GBP/USD and EUR/GBP: British Pound Remains Strong

GBP/USD extended its rise above the 1.3680 and 1.3700 resistance levels. EUR/GBP is correcting lower and it is approaching a major support near 0.8875.

Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and EUR/GBP

• The British Pound remained well bid above 1.3600 and it climbed above 1.3680.
• There is a key contracting triangle forming with resistance near 1.3715 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD.
• EUR/GBP started a fresh decline after it failed to clear the main 0.8920 resistance zone.
• Earlier, there was a break above a short-term bearish trend line with resistance near 0.0.8860 on the hourly chart.
  

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

After forming a base above the 1.3500 and 1.3520, there was a fresh increase in the British Pound against the US Dollar. The GBP/USD pair broke the 1.3580 and 1.3600 resistance levels to move into a positive zone.

The pair gained momentum above 1.3600 and it even spiked above the 1.3680 resistance. There was also a break above the 1.3700 zone and the pair settled above the 50 hourly simple moving average.

A new multi-month high was formed near 1.3746 on FXOpen before the pair started a downside correction. It traded below the 1.3680 support level and the 50 hourly simple moving average, but the bulls protected the 1.3640 level.

A low is formed near 1.3636 and the pair is currently rising. It is trading above the 1.3680 level, the 50 hourly simple moving average, and the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.3746 high to 1.3636 low.

It seems like there is a key contracting triangle forming with resistance near 1.3715 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD. An immediate resistance is near the 1.3700 zone or the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.3746 high to 1.3636 low.

A successful break above the 1.3700 and 1.3715 levels could open the doors for a new high above the 1.3746 in the near term. Conversely, the pair could break the triangle support and continue lower towards the main 1.3620 support level.

EUR/GBP Technical Analysis

The Euro started a fresh increase from the 0.8830 low against the British Pound. The EUR/GBP pair broke the 0.8850 and 0.8860 resistance levels to move into a positive zone.

There was also a break above a short-term bearish trend line with resistance near 0.0.8860 on the hourly chart. The pair surged above the 0.8900 level, but it struggled to clear a major hurdle near the 0.8920 zone.

A high is formed near 0.8918 and the pair is currently declining. It broke the 0.8900 level and tested the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 0.8830 swing low to 0.8918 high.

On the downside, there is a major support waiting near the 0.8875 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. It is also close to the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 0.8830 swing low to 0.8918 high.

Any more losses could lead the pair towards the 0.8850 support level in the near term. Conversely, the pair could start a fresh increase from the 0.8875 support zone.

On the upside, the 0.8900 level is a short-term resistance for the Euro bulls. However, the main hurdle is still near 0.8920, above which EUR/GBP could rally towards the 0.9000 resistance.

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Decisive Week for the Dollar as the Fed’s Meeting Looms Large

Financial markets started the new year on the same note as the previous year ended – higher stocks, lower dollar. The extent of the advance in the stock market, or the decline in the dollar, led many market participants to wonder if the Fed’s monetary policy did not lead to financial bubbles?

After all, a survey shows that over 25% of the market participants still believe that Bitcoin will double from the current levels. Or, 18% believe that the price of Tesla will double over the next twelve months. That is, in the context of Bitcoin already rising from $10,000 to $40,000 in the last months and Tesla already being up over 650% in 2020.

Will the Dollar Weakness Stop?

To many, the weakness in the dollar is responsible for such extreme price action. If we are to see a change in the trend, as suggested by the 56% of the market participants that expect a higher dollar against Bitcoin for the next twelve months, then the risk may come from Wednesday Fed’s decision.

On Wednesday, the Fed is expected to keep the monetary policy unchanged – the federal funds rate at the lower boundary and the QE program running at $120 billion/month. However, this week, the focus will shift from the FOMC Statement to the Fed’s press conference.

More precisely, it will be more important what the Fed thinks about the future economic outlook. In the face of the rapid pace of vaccinations (i.e., the United States already vaccinated 6% of its population), the risk is that the Fed will deliver a slightly hawkish outlook for the future economic recovery. If that is the case, the dollar may turn in the expectation of the future tapering of the quantitative easing program.

Last week the ECB delivered a slightly hawkish statement too. It said that it may or may not use the full envelope of the PEPP program, despite the fact that many European countries face the worse of the pandemic right now.

As such, one should not discount a hawkish Fed too. If that happens, the USD will make a U-turn because the reflation trade that went on for months now seems to be extremely stretched.

As we saw in 2020, the dollar’s direction matters for the equity markets and other markets too. For stocks to remain close to all-time highs, the correlation with the dollar must break.

Will we see such a divergence on Wednesday? Or will the reflation trade continue after the Fed’s first meeting of the year?

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BTC and XRP – Bearish scenario expected

BTC/USD

From yesterday’s open the price of Bitcoin has increased by 12.44% coming from its lowest point of $31,030 to $34,891 at its highest but has since then made a downfall. The price fell back to the same levels as on yesterday’s low and is now starting to make another recovery attempt. Currently it is sitting at around $32,221.

Looking at the hourly chart, you can see that the price made a recovery from the 22nd of January when it fell to $28,785 at its lowest wick. The decrease to those levels was the completion of the 3rd wave from the corrective structure that started developing after the all-time high.

We could have seen the completion of the correction, but the wave structure is still looking more corrective than impulsive on the recovery that followed. This is why more likely, we are seeing the corrective wave continuation in the form of the second wave X from the WXYXZ complex count.

As you can see the price made a descending triangle from its all-time high and since it made interaction with its resistance level, now we are going to have a validation of the assumed scenario as if the price is in a prolonged correction now the Z wave is shortly going to start developing. That means that now a breakout to the downside would be shortly expected.

If this starts developing the price of Bitcoin could fall back to the $24,000 area where the next significant horizontal support level in line with the downside. This would be a downfall of just over 30% which would be a highly significant one.

XRP/USD

The price of Ripple has been moving sideways from the 22nd of January when it spiked down to $0.24 area from where it made a recovery to $0.28 level. Since the price has been in this horizontal range we have seen further support and resistance testing with the price currently sitting at $0.26645.

As you can see from the hourly chart, the price has previously made a breakout to the upside from the descending triangle in which it was since the 8th of January but failed to continue moving to the upside. The assumed scenario was the five-wave impulse to the upside but since the price spiked inside the territory of the 1st wave this is starting to get invalidated. Instead, more likely we have seen a three-wave upside corrective move before further downside continuation.

However, the quick spike on the 22nd could have been the completion of the 4th wave although unlikely at this point. In the upcoming period, we are going to see if the invalidation gets confirmed and that is going to be indicated from the breakout direction of the current horizontal range.

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LTC and EOS – Correction might have ended but downside potential still present

LTC/USD

The price of Litecoin has been on the rise since yesterday as it came from $118.1 to $132.15 which is an increase of 11.89%. Now it is being traded slightly lower but is still in an upward trajectory.

On the hourly chart, we can see that this recovery came after a decline of around 20.35% from its high on January 25th when it reached $147.8. This was the continuation of the descending move that started on the 7th of January and is part of the corrective structure of a higher degree count. The price found support on the 0.618 Fib extension level and is now looking for support on the 0.5.

If the support is present on those levels we could see the recovery continuing to move to the upside. But if the price doesn’t find support further downside movement could be seen. In either way, since this is the part of the higher degree correction we would expect further downside as there is still more room to go. If the price is to make a five-wave impulse that could be the C wave of the ABC correction we could see Litecoin being traded at around $75 area. However, we could be seeing a different correctional count in which case projecting the length of the first descending impulse we come up with the target of around $91.35.

EOS/USD

From yesterday’s low at $2.465 the price of EOS has increased by 13.61% as it came up to the $2.801 level at its highest point today. The price spiked impulsively to the upside but has since made a minor retracement to the $2.7134 level where it’s currently being traded.

Looking at the hourly chart we can see that the price made a higher low yesterday and has attempted to make a higher high but failed to do so on the current rise. However, considering the impulsiveness seen this might change soon. From its high on the 10th of January made at $3.925 a strong descending move was made which could have been the starting point of the correctional higher degree move.

With the price currently testing the prior high which is the horizontal resistance, it might get rejected causing further downside continuation. In that case, we are to see an immediate retracement which will push the price further down breaking the horizontal support of $2.4237. But if it continues increasing from there it could indicate that the correction ended on the 22nd of January in which case yesterday’s low would be the 2nd wave out of the next five-wave impulse to the upside.

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GBP/USD Facing Key Resistance, USD/CAD Remains Supported

GBP/USD gained momentum above the 1.3700 resistance, but it struggled near 1.3745. USD/CAD is holding the 1.2750 support, but it is struggling below 1.2820.

Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and USD/CAD

• The British Pound is holding gains above the 1.3650 and 1.3680 levels.
• There is a connecting bullish trend line forming with support near 1.3690 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD.
• USD/CAD struggled to stay above 1.2820 and corrected lower.
• There is a major bullish trend line forming with support near 1.2770 on the hourly chart.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

After forming a base above the 1.3620 level, the British Pound started a fresh increase against the US Dollar. The GBP/USD pair broke the 1.3700 resistance level to move into a positive zone.

There was also a break above 1.3720 and the 50 hourly simple moving average. However, the pair seems to be facing a strong resistance near the 1.3745 and 1.3750 levels. The recent high was formed near 1.3751 on FXOpen before the pair corrected lower.

A low is formed near 1.3691 and the pair is currently rising. It broke the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 1.3751 high to 1.3691 low.

On the upside, an initial resistance is near the 1.3738 level. It is close to the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 1.3751 high to 1.3691 low. The main resistance is still near the 1.3750 zone.

To start a strong increase, the pair must clear the 1.3745 and 1.3750 resistance levels. If the bulls succeed, the pair could rise towards the 1.3850 level.

On the downside, the first key support is near the 1.3700 area. There is also a connecting bullish trend line forming with support near 1.3690 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD. If there is a break below 1.3700 and 1.3690, the pair could decline towards the 1.3620 support zone in the near term.

USD/CAD Technical Analysis

The US Dollar followed a bullish path above the 1.2800 level against the Canadian Dollar. The USD/CAD pair even broke the 1.2820 and 1.2850 resistance levels, but it struggled near the 1.2880 level.

There were two attempts by the bulls to clear 1.2880, but there was no upside break. A high was formed near 1.2874 and the pair decline below the 1.2820 support level. A low was formed near 1.2737 and the pair corrected higher.

It broke the 1.2800 resistance level, plus the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.2874 high to 1.2737 swing low. However, the pair faced a strong resistance near the 1.2820 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average.

It also failed to clear the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.2874 high to 1.2737 swing low. The pair is currently declining and trading near the 1.2780 level.

On the downside, there is a major bullish trend line forming with support near 1.2770 on the hourly chart. If USD/CAD breaks the trend line support, there is a risk of a larger decline in the coming sessions.

The next major support is near the 1.2700 level. On the upside, the first major resistance is near the 1.2820 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. The next key resistance is near the 1.2880 level. A clear break above the 1.2820 resistance level may possibly increase the chances of a run above 1.2880 in the near term.

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The USD Shows Signs of Strength Ahead of the NFP Report Next Friday

The trading week started on a strong note for the USD. The greenback gained against the Euro and the CHF, despite the fact that the Euro area manufacturing PMI came out way above the 50 level.

It appears that the weakness in the EURUSD pair, the most important pair as it weighs almost 50% in the dollar index, comes more from a weak Euro rather than from a strong dollar. Nevertheless, if the EURUSD pair keeps the bearish trend, the other dollar markets will eventually follow.

Two Central Banks to Release Their Decisions This Week

Last week we saw the Federal Reserve of the United States (Fed) announcing its interest rate decision. It left the monetary policy unchanged, and at the press conference Jerome Powell, the Fed’s chair, failed to guide markets as to what comes next. The focus was on forward guidance and on any hint from the Fed of a possible tapering of the quantitative easing program currently running at $120 billion ($80 billion asset purchasing and $40 billion mortgage-backed securities).

But the Fed chose to avoid the subject and thus, the markets moved forward. As the chart above shows, the Fed is not the one with the most aggressive balance sheet expansion. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) and the Bank of Japan (BOJ) lead the pack, followed by the European Central Bank (ECB) in the third place. The implications are that the Fed still has room to go, or that the dollar declined too much as if we compare the balance sheet of the four central banks, the dollar should be higher.

This week it is the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the Bank of England (BOE)’s turn to announce their policy. The British pound (GBP) has been on a strong recovery since the Brexit deal was announced in late December last year. Also, the Australian dollar (AUD) is one of the best-performing currencies during the health crisis.

As always, the first trading week of the month brings the NFP report on Friday. The focus on this week’s report is to see if the U.S. economy continues to lose jobs. If we see a reversal, fueled by the increased vaccination rate, the market may trade in anticipation of a stronger economic recovery than initially expected.

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BTC and XRP – Corrections might have ended but further confirmation still needed

BTC/USD

The price of Bitcoins has been moving sideways in the last couple of days after it made a spike to the upside to $38,637 at its highest point. This increase of around 31.9% came after the price tested the descending triangles support level and was the impulsive move that made a breakout from the triangles on the upside.

As you can see from the hourly chart after a breakout was made the price fell back and retested the triangle’s resistance level for support, which was a pullback to $32,213. Support was present at those levels which is why we have seen further increase but the price didn’t manage to move back up for a higher high compared to the local one.

Even though the breakout was made this increase could still be part of the same correctional structure that started on the 10th of January after the all-time high was made. If this is true then the price is now headed further down for the formation of the Z wave of the complex correction count.

Another possibility would be that the correction ended on the 27th of January in which case this impulse was to be the first wave from the next starting impulse. As the price is now in a downward trajectory we are going to see which count gets validated. If the price continues moving down and enters the territory of the descending triangle then it would be the first bearish one, but if it finds support and continues increasing, further price appreciation would look more likely.

XRP/USD

The price of Ripple has spiked to the $0.755 level yesterday coming from $0.3895 at its lowest point on Sunday, which was an increase of 93.84%. But after the increase ended the price was set in a downfall of 54%, coming to $0.3465 at its lowest point today. Since then recovery has been seen with the price moving sharply to the upside and is currently being traded just slightly below the $0.4 level.

On the hourly chart, you can see that the price fell below the 0.618 Fibonacci level but now managed to pull back above it. The previous upside move was the ending of the five-wave impulse that started before the new year which is why we have seen a retracement. If this impulse was the first wave after the larger correction ended, the price of Ripple is now headed further to the upside but considering the amount of the decrease we have seen since yesterday we are yet to see if the bullish interest is still present.

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EUR/USD Remains at Risk, USD/CHF Gains Bullish Momentum

EUR/USD failed to continue higher and declined below 1.2100. USD/CHF is gaining bullish momentum and it is trading nicely above 0.8900.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/CHF

• The Euro started a fresh decline below the 1.2120 and 1.2080 support levels against the US Dollar.
• There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.2065 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.
• USD/CHF started a strong increase and climbed above the 0.8900 resistance zone.
• There is a short-term expanding triangle forming with support near 0.8950 on the hourly chart.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The Euro failed on many occasions to clear the 1.2200 resistance zone against the US Dollar. As a result, the EUR/USD pair started a fresh decline below the 1.2150 and 1.2120 support levels.

The pair even broke the 1.2080 support level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. It cleared the key 1.2055 support zone and traded as low as 1.2011 on FXOpen.

EUR/USD is currently correcting higher and trading above 1.2025. It is testing the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 1.2086 high to 1.2011 low. On the upside, the first resistance is near the 1.2055 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average.

There is also a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.2065 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD. The trend line is close to the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 1.2086 high to 1.2011 low.

A successful break above the 1.2065 resistance and the 50 hourly simple moving average is must for a steady recovery in the near term.

Conversely, the pair could start a fresh decline from 1.2055. An initial support is near the 1.2025 level. The next major support is near the 1.2000 zone. Any more losses could lead the pair towards the 1.1950 zone.

USD/CHF Technical Analysis

The US Dollar started a steady increase from the 0.8850 support zone against the Swiss franc. The USD/CHF pair broke many important hurdles near 0.8900 to move into a positive zone.

It even cleared the 0.8950 resistance and the 50 hourly simple moving average. The pair traded close to the 0.9000 level and traded as high as 0.8994. It is currently correcting gains and trading below the 0.8980 level.

USD/CHF is testing the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent increase from the 0.8948 swing low to 0.8994 high. The next major support on the downside is near the 0.8960 level or the 50 hourly simple moving average.

There is also a short-term expanding triangle forming with support near 0.8950 on the hourly chart. As long as USD/CHF is above the triangle support, it could climb back towards the 0.9000 resistance level in the near term. The next key resistance could be near the 0.9040 level.

On the downside, the main support is near the 0.8945 level. If the pair fails to stay above the 0.8955 and 0.8945 support levels, there is a risk of a larger decline.

In the stated case, USD/CHF could decline towards the 0.8920 support. There is also a major bullish trend line forming with support near the 0.8900 on the same chart, where the bulls are likely to take a strong stand.

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LTC and EOS – Pullback or the begging of a downtrend?

LTC/USD

The price of Litecoin has been in a decline from today’s open at $159 which was its highest point so far. It made a decrease of 9.67% at its lowest today but is currently being traded slightly high at is sitting at around $149.11.

On the hourly chart, you can see that today’s open the high made after a breakout from the descending triangle in which the price was since the 10th of January. The price fell from its high of $185.8 to the horizontal support level at $122 on three occasions and after the third test, a higher high was made and then finally a breakout to the upside on Tuesday. As the price continued making a higher high it exceeded the $155 horizontal level which was the mid-range of the correctional structure in the descending triangle but failed to go above the midpoint high at $166.7 before making a pullback.

If the prior correction ended with the breakout being the continuation of the uptrend of the higher degree, then the current retracement would be only a local one.  In that case from the 27th of January when another retest of the significant horizontal level at the $120 zone was made we have seen the start of the next five-wave impulse with the breakout wave being its 3rd. Now as the price is going to the downside it should find support on the ending point of the assumed 1st wave which is at $146. This was tested today with the price action showing a wick on the hourly chart it appears that support is present at those level.

However if the price continues to move further to the downside it could mean that this increase seen with a breakout to the upside was the continuation of the corrective count.

EOS/USD

From its highest point on Monday at $3.2787, the price of EOS has fallen by 11.75% on the same day and enter a recovery since. It reached $3.15 yesterday which could have been the end of the recovery as it started decreasing again and is currently being traded just above $3.

As you can see from the hourly chart the price made a breakout below its ascending trendline that dates from the 27th of January. This ascending trendline is the 3rd wave from the upward move that starts on the 22nd of January, but it is still unclear whether or not it is an impulse or a corrective count. Judging by the wave personality it looks more corrective at this point which is why I’ve labeled it as an ABC. This is soon going to be validated as if the price continued moving to the downside below the $2.88 zone it could very well mean that we have seen the correctional ABC count.

This forecast represents FXOpen Markets Limited opinion only, it should not be construed as an offer, invitation or recommendation in respect to FXOpen Markets Limited products and services or as financial advice.

Cryptocurrency CFDs are not available to trade in all jurisdictions.

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AUD/USD and NZD/USD Signaling More Losses

AUD/USD is slowly moving lower and it is now trading well below 0.7650. NZD/USD is also declining and it seems like it could revisit the 0.7100 support zone.

Important Takeaways for AUD/USD and NZD/USD

• The Aussie Dollar started a fresh decline below the 0.7700 and 0.7650 support levels against the US Dollar.
• There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 0.7615 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD.
• NZD/USD is also moving lower and it is now trading below the 0.7200 support level.
• There was a break below a major bullish trend line with support near 0.7160 on the hourly chart of NZD/USD.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

After struggling to gain momentum above the 0.7750 level, the Aussie Dollar started a fresh decline against the US Dollar. The AUD/USD pair broke the 0.7700 support level to move into a bearish zone.

The pair even cleared the 0.7650 support level and settled below the 50 hourly simple moving average. A low was formed near 0.7563 on FXOpen before the pair corrected higher. It recovered above the 0.7600 level, but there was no clear break above 0.7650.

As a result, the pair started a fresh decline below the 0.7620 support. The pair even traded below the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 0.7563 low to 0.7647 high.

There is also a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 0.7615 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD. It is now testing the 0.7585 support, which is close to the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 0.7563 low to 0.7647 high.

If there is a downside break, the pair could test the 0.7550 support. Any more losses may possibly open the doors for a push towards the 0.7500 level.

On the upside, the 0.7615 level is a major resistance along with the 50 hourly simple moving average. A clear break above the 0.7615 and 0.7620 levels may possibly open the doors for a fresh increase towards 0.7700 in the coming sessions.

NZD/USD Technical Analysis

The New Zealand Dollar also followed a similar path after it failed to clear the 0.7220 resistance against the US Dollar. The NZD/USD pair broke the 0.7200 support level to start the current decline.

The pair broke the 0.7180 support level and settled well below the 50 hourly simple moving average. There was also a break below a major bullish trend line with support near 0.7160 on the hourly chart of NZD/USD.

The pair is now trading below the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 0.7135 low to 0.7225 high. It is testing the last swing low at 0.7135 and it is likely to continue lower.

The next key support is near the 0.7110 level. It is close to the 1.236 Fib extension level of the upward move from the 0.7135 low to 0.7225 high. Any more losses could push the pair below the 0.7100 support level.

Conversely, the pair could attempt to correct higher above the 0.7155 and 0.7160 resistance levels. The main resistance is near the 0.7200 zone. A clear break and close above the 0.7200 level could increase the chances of more gains above the 0.7220 resistance.

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