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Date : 3rd April 2020.

Inured to the bad news.


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The markets are relatively inured to the bad news, as the weekly jobless claims have already given us the increasingly ugly news on the labor market. US equities are modestly weaker amid risk-off sentiment and an employment report that revealed a much larger than anticipated -701k plunge in March and a jump in the jobless rate to 8.7% from 7.0%.

Meanwhile, the Dollar showed mixed reaction to the employment report. These numbers were worse than expected, though shouldn’t really be a surprise given the more timely surge in jobless claims figures seen the past two weeks. USDJPY initially fell to 108.25 before turning back up again at 108.60, while EURUSD fell to 1.0780 from 1.0800. USDCHF extended gains up to 0.9794, reversing nearly 76% of the decline seen since March 20.

EURUSD concurrently carved out a 9-day low at 1.0774, making this the 5th consecutive day of lower lows while extending the correction from the 17-day high that was seen last Friday at 1.1148. The pair still remains above the low seen during the recent Dollar liquidity crunch, at 1.0637, before the Fed and other central banks stepped in to try and satiate the demand for cash dollars. Its overall outlook meanwhile, remains negative, with the asset extending well below all 3 daily SMAs and with its daily momentum indicators negatively configured. Hence the Dollar bid looks to hold.

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The March establishment and household employment surveys captured more of the early layoffs than the markets had assumed, with massive declines for payrolls and hours-worked, big drops for civilian employment, the labor force, and the participation rate, and the start of the upward march for the jobless rate. Wages were also firm, likely due to the concentration of job loss among lower-paid workers.

The specifics: March nonfarm payrolls dropped -701k after February’s 275k increase (was 273k), which ended a 9.5 year run of employment gains. The employment in the goods-producing sector fell -54k from the 57k (was 61k) rise. Service sector jobs slumped -659k after rising 185k (was 167k) in February. Leisure/hospitality jobs plunged -459k from the prior 45k (was 51k) increase. Education/health care jobs were down -76k versus a 65k (was 54k) increase previously. Government jobs edged up 12k, with 18k added to the Federal payroll. The unemployment rate jumped to 4.4% (4.38%) from 3.5%. Average hourly earnings rose 0.4% versus the prior 0.3% gain.

The weakness captured in the mid-month March jobs report may prompt downward revisions in the Q1 GDP estimate, on the assumption that the Quarter may capture more of the economic plunge than previously assumed.

Beyond the timing of Q1 versus Q2 growth figures, however, the surprise in today‘s report is more the degree to which the surveys captured late-March events than the magnitude of declines, since the bulk of the jobs loss will still be captured in the surveys for April.

Since the Fed is already in maximum easing mode, it is unlikely that reports like today‘s will alter the monetary policy path.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 6th April 2020.

Events to Look Out For Next Week


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It’s a holiday shortened week ahead as most markets will be closed on Friday for the Easter holidays, however the novel coronavirus remains the focal point. The rapid upswing in market volatility seen in March should continue in April as governments, central banks, households and businesses further adapt to the ongoing pandemic and uncertain outlook. Hence this will be another week of increased attention to the data which will incorporate more of the impacts of the global shutdowns and will help start to quantify the severity of the economic impacts amid still very uncertain times.

Monday – 06 April 2020
 

  • OPEC Meeting (USOIL, GMT 19:00) – Azerbaijan’s energy ministry said that a meeting of the OPEC+ group of oil producers is planned for April 6 and will be held as a video conference.

Tuesday – 07 April 2020

  • Interest Rate Decision and Monetary Policy Statement (AUD, GMT 04:30) – Positioning in 30-day interbank cash rate futures this week implied a 60% chance for the RBA to cut its benchmark interest rate to zero from 0.25% at the upcoming policy meeting, which is up from odds of 31% for such a move that were being discounted just over a week ago. However in the March RBA minutes, they provided colour around the 25bp rate cut and the adoption of QE but they made clear that there is no appetite for negative interest rates.
  • JOLTS Job Openings (USD, GMT 14:00) – JOLTS define Job Openings as all positions that have not been filled on the last business day of the month. February’s JOLTS job openings is expected to fall slightly at 6.476M, following the 6.963M in January.
  • Ivey PMI (CAD, GMT 15:00) – A survey of purchasing managers, the Index provides an overview of the state of business conditions in the country.

Wednesday – 08 April 2020
 

  • EIA weekly Crude Oil Stocks Change (USOIL, GMT 14:30)
  • FOMC Minutes (USD, GMT 18:00) – The FOMC Minutes report provides the FOMC Members’ opinions regarding the US economic outlook and any views regarding future rate hikes. In the last FOMC statement, on March 15, the FOMC slashed rates 100 bps to 0% – 0.25% in an emergency move, getting ahead of the curve.

Thursday – 09 April 2020
 

  • ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts (EUR, GMT 11:30) – The ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts provide information with regards to the policymakers’ rationale behind their decisions. At the same time, in the last meeting, ECB announced a EUR 750 bln pandemic emergency program (PEPP) and introduced new QE measures worth EUR 120 bln and additional loan programs, while they left rates unchanged at the March policy meeting.
  • Producer Price Index (USD, GMT 12:30) – The Headline PPI is expected to decline to a -0.2% March PPI headline with a 0.2% increase in the core index. The continued energy price pull-back through the month likely weighed on the headline.
  • Employment Change (CAD, GMT 12:30) – Employment change is seen spiking to 10.0k in the number of employed people in March, compared to the spike at 30.3k in February. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 5.6%.
  • Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (USD, GMT 14:00) – The preliminary April Michigan sentiment reading is forecast at 95, up from the 89.1 in March.

Friday – 10 April 2020
 

  • Consumer Price Index (CNY, GMT 01:30) – The March’s Chinese CPI is expected to remain unchanged on a monthly and yearly basis.
  • Consumer Price Index and Core (USD, GMT 12:30) – The headline CPI has been estimated to a -0.2% March headline CPI drop with a 0.2% core price increase, following respective February readings of 0.1% and 0.2%. As with PPI, the headline inflation figures will be depressed well into 2020 from the OPEC price war, though the core figures will face divergent pressures that are partly downward due to diminished demand with COVID-19, but upward due to supply shortages that may prompt some erratic swings.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 7th April 2020.

FX Update – April 7 – A wee bit more Risk.


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Trading Leveraged Products is risky

AUDUSD & GBPUSD, H1
The commodity currencies outperformed some more, as did many developing-world currencies amid a backdrop of rising stock and commodity markets. Equity markets are amid day two of a rally pinned on tentative signs that the global coronavirus infection and mortality rates might be near to peaking. The Fed’s decision to finance new “payroll protection” loans has also bolstered the US economic response plans. AUDUSD has rallied 1.7% in printing a one-week high at 0.6192, while AUDJPY has rallied by 1.4% in making a high at 67.38. The Aussie dollar is now up 3% from last Friday’s closing levels. The Kiwi and Canadian dollars are also up. USDCAD has dropped to an eight-day low at 1.4011. The Dollar, Yen and, to a lesser degree, the Swiss Franc, have continued to underperform most other currencies. The narrow trade-weighted USDIndex has declined by 0.6% in pegging a five-day low at 100.79, while EURUSD concurrently lifted by 0.7% in making a five-day high, at 1.0876. The pair is up by just over 1% from its Monday lows. The combination of risk-on positioning in markets and the Fed’s aggressive dollar liquidity provisions, which forms part of a crisis-era level of monetary accommodation, have been bearish tonic for the Dollar. Dollar underperformance saw USDJPY dip back under 109.00, though the Yen itself trader softer against most other currencies as its safe-haven premium is whittled down.

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Sterling dipped on the news that PM Johnson was moved to ICU and had received oxygen, although Downing Street stated that he was still conscience and that Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab will lead the UK government as long as Johnson is incapacitated. From lows of 1.2162 earlier, a weaker USD, has Cable rally over 170 pips to 1.2335. Next resistance is R2 and the upper Bollinger band around 1.2375, 1.2400 and then R3 at 1.2420. Support sits at 1.2300 and the Daily Pivot Point, a 50.0 Fibonacci level and 200hr moving average at 1.2250.

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Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 8th April 2020.

April 8 – Europe and EUR update.


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Sentiment collapsed further in European session on the news that EU finance ministers failed to reach deal and also on the announcement from German institutes, which they estimated nearly 10% contraction in Q2, the sharpest decline since records began in 1970. This topped the concerns of pandemic and related shutdown of the economy.

EU leaders will meet again tomorrow. Discussions on how to finance a European wide response package to the pandemic have not yet found a compromise. Demands for Eurobonds clashing with the red lines against mutualising debt in countries such as Germany, which would make the introduction of new financing measures a lengthy affair even if officials were to agree to such a step. The southern European states (especially Italy) are keen to have debt mutualisation (“coronabonds”) as part of the package. The most likely outcome is a use of ESM funds to finance immediate aid measures, coupled with funds from the EU budget and the EIB investment bank to finance economic measures not just through the immediate crisis, but to kick start the recovery once lock downs have been lifted.

Last but not least for European economy, is the fact that ECB lowers collateral standards, to keep credit flowing. The central bank announced that it will temporarily lower standards for the collateral that banks can use to access ECB funds. The move is aimed at keeping credit flowing through the crisis and will also allow Greek debt to be used. Furthermore the haircut applied to collateral, which will allow banks to borrow more money against the same amount of collateral. As a result the ECB will take on more risk onto its own balance sheet, but the hope is that by strengthening banks’ access to funds the central bank can boost lending to households and businesses. For Greece it will also give the government more room to finance its measures to get the economy through the pandemic. The central bank stressed that the “measures are temporary for the duration of the pandemic crisis” and will be reassessed later in the year.

Hence as risk-on has turned today into a risk-off, the EUR weakens so far today on USD strength. It will be very important for the long term stability of the bloc that there will be a clear signal of solidarity at tomorrow’s juncture.

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EURUSD concurrently declined by almost 0.5% in making a low at 1.0829, resuming the bearish outlook in the daily picture for the asset. Yesterday’s rally spread concerns whether the EURUSD possible trend revernsal however today’s swing lower again along with the decline for 7th consecutive day below 20- and 50-day SMA suggest that yesterday’s rally was just a correction.

In the 1-hour chart, EURUSD is moving within a tight downchannel since 1.0925 peak, with lower ups and downs seen since then. Hence in the near term any recovery within the channel could be interpret as a correction prior a pullback. Intraday momentum indicators are mixed with RSI at neutral zone posting lower lows since yesterday, while MACD lines have been zeroed suggesting that bulls have lost the control today. Additionally, the mark of a hummingbird by Bollinger bands pattern, which indicates a bearish signal in the daily chart, could signal further weakness in the near term.

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In order the near term picture to turn to positive again, the hourly RSI needs to sustain a move above 50, while we need to see a swing outside the channel and above the confluence of the latest up fractal and the 20-hour EMA, at 1.0892. Meanwhile, in the medium term outlook, the asset is facing a strong Resistance area at 1.0950-1.0965 (50% Fib. retracement from 1.1146 downleg and 50-day SMA). A decisive breakout above this area could imply to the continuation of a recovery for the asset.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 9th April 2020.

FX Update – April 9 – 4 Key Events Today.


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Narrow ranges have been prevailing in currency markets ahead of some big event risk items on today’s calendar.

Asian and European stock markets, and US index futures, have retained buoyancy amid hopes that the peak global coronavirus infection rate may be approaching, which could mark the end of “phase 1” of the pandemic, with “phase 2” being how to exit from lockdowns while there is, as yet, no vaccine or cure.

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EURUSD has posted a 40-pip range so far, with a two-day low at 1.0840 marking the downside limit. USDJPY has been idling in a 26-pip range, with 109.06 marking the upside cap. Cable has settled in the mid-to-upper 1.2300s, below yesterday’s one-week high at 1.2421. UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson remains in intensive care for what is now a fourth day. Official updates, as of yesterday, reported that he was responding well to treatment, but after downplaying his condition ahead of him being admitted to hospital and then an ICU, there is a degree of uncertainty about the accuracy of this. AUDUSD has edged out a 24-day high at 0.6246, buoyed by the current optimism in stock and commodity markets. USDCAD has posted a range of 1.4000-14054, holding within yesterday’s range.

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Ahead today, attention will be on:
 

  1. The recommencement of the EU finance ministers’ meeting, at 15:00 GMT after yesterday’s meeting failed to find an accord on a region-wide fiscal plan to offset the impact of virus-containment measures.
  2. The OPEC+ group of oil producing nations will also begin its teleconference meeting, from 14:00 GMT.Markets are looking for an agreement to slash crude output by 10 mln barrels a day. There is significant scepticism among oil analysts that even a cut of this magnitude would be sufficient to offset the level of recent demand destruction.
  3. In the US, the weekly jobless claims report will once again take top billing (it’s expected to once again paint a dismal picture), along with ongoing deliberations in the US Congress on fiscal relief measures.
  4. Finally, FED Chair Powell is scheduled on a conference call from the Brookings Institution in Washington DC.

Note that trading will thin into the long weekend and tomorrow’s Good Friday holiday.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 10th April 2020.

EURUSD Turns Higher | April 10.


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EURUSD,H1
The EURUSD closed at a six-day high (1.0928) and above the 20-day moving average for the first time in 9 days, yesterday ahead of the extended Easter holiday weekend. Action from the Fed, helped weaken the Dollar and action, from the EU supported the EUR. Today the pair continues to track higher in extremely thin markets and very low volume to 1.0945. Next resistance is the upper Bollinger band at 1.0955 and R1 at 1.0973 with the Daily pivot point sitting at 1.0906 above the psychological 1.0900. The Daily chart has resistance (50-day moving average and 38.2 Fibonacci level at 1.10970 and then the 200-day moving average and 50.0 Fib level at 1.1070, before the 61.8 Fib at 1.1180. Immediate support sits at 1.0900, the April low at 1.0775 with the March low sitting at 1.0635.

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The Fed announced new unprecedented facilities to deal with the coronavirus and the containment policies that have largely shut the US economy. Under these new measures, which include programmes to support state and local governments, as well as small and mid-sized companies, the Fed will provide up to $2.3 tln in additional aid. The Dollar got hit across the board as a result, leaving this a case of USD weakness as opposed to EUR strength. Brave new world.

The EUR also received a lift as European Finance Ministers agree financing of joint virus response. The immediate support measures focus on three pillars.
 

  • First a EUR 100 bln (or around 0.7% of EU GDP) employment re-insurance – SURE – designed to support wage subsidies, for furloughed workers and self-employed. This measure will not just help those temporarily laid off, but also help companies to keep on trained staff through the lockdowns and thus lay the ground for a quick restart of production and work once lockdowns are being lifted.
  • The European Investment Bank (EIB) will also provide EUR 200 bln liquidity to support small and medium sized companies, in countries where support is limited. These are loans and costs will only be realised if they are defaulted on.
  • The last part of the package – focused on the Eurozone – are EUR 240 bln of credit lines to sovereigns that will be provided by the European Stability Mechanism (ESM). Unlike the original bailout funds, for which the ESM was set up, these will come with very few conditions attached. The only condition is that the funds must be used to cover direct and indirect health , cure and prevention related costs. The ESM is jointly backed by Eurozone governments and offer a sort of “Eurobond-light”. The ESM always offered the best way to jointly fund a direct response, as a new “Coronabond” or “Coronafund”, would have taken a long time to set up and faced additional legal hurdles at national level. The use of the ESM also paves the way for the ECB to use the OMT program – if necessary – to support the funding.

All these measures cover the initial response to the challenges of locked down economies and the European Commission will be setting up investment programs financed through the multi annual budget to support the recovery once lockdowns have ended, in addition to measures already agreed.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 13th April 2020.

Events To Look Out For This Week


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The shortened week starts with major markets closed on Easter Monday, but overcompensates on Wednesday and Thursday with the BoC rate decision and Press Conference, Australian employment data and Inflation from the EU.

Tuesday – 14 April 2020
 

  • Trade Balance (CNY, GMT N/A) – The Chinese trade balance is expected to turn out positive in March, standing at $18 bln, compared to the deficit of $7 billion in February.

Wednesday – 15 April 2020

  • Retail Sales (USD, GMT 12:30) – Retail Sales are expected to have declined to -3.4% for headline retail sales and -0.9% for the ex-auto figure, following February dips of -0.5% for the headline and -0.4% ex-autos.
  • Event of the week – BoC Interest Rate Decision & Press Conference (CAD, GMT 14:00 – 15:15) – On March 27, the Bank of Canada cut 50 bps to 0.25%. A rate reduction to the 0.25% setting was widely expected either at or before the April 15 announcement date. Hence in this week’s meeting no change of rate is expected. As they stated at the time: “This unscheduled rate decision brings the policy rate to its effective lower bound and is intended to provide support to the Canadian financial system and the economy during the COVID-19 pandemic.” The Bank launched two new programs: 1. Commercial Paper Purchase Program (CPPP) to help alleviate strains in short-term funding markets and thereby preserve a key source of funding for businesses and 2. Acquisition of GoC securities in the secondary market, with purchases beginning with a minimum of C$5 bln per week across the yield curve. The Bank is coordinating with the G7 and fiscal authorities and “stands ready to take further action as required to support the Canadian economy and financial system and to keep inflation on target.”

Thursday – 16 April 2020

  • Labour Market Data (AUD, GMT 01:30) – As the world changed in March as the pandemic prompted widespread shutdowns of economies across the globe, employment change for March is expected to have significantly decreased to -40K from 26.7K in February, while the unemployment rate is expected to have increased to 5.5% in March, compared to 5.1% in the previous month.
  • Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (EUR, GMT 06:00) – The German HICP preliminary inflation for March is anticipated to remain unchanged at 1.3% y/y.
  • Housing Data (USD, GMT 12:30) – Housing starts should dip to a 1.300 mln pace in March, after falling to a 1.599 mln pace in February from a 14-year high of 1.624 mln in January. Permits are expected to fall to 1.360 mln in March, after dipping to 1.452 mln in February. Permits have followed a solid growth path since Q2 of 2019, alongside strength in starts.
  • Jobless Claims (USD, GMT 12:30) – The disruptions from COVID-19 and the government’s policies including containment and relief measures are expected to continue boosting claims to unprecedented levels.
  • Philly Fed Index (USD, GMT 12:30) – The Philly Fed index is seen falling to -35.0 versus a 37-month high of 36.7 in February. The March reading for the Philly Fed marked a low back to July ’12. April’s reading is now expected to decline further, to -26. The markets will focus on the ongoing hit from the COVID-19 outbreak and associated mandatory business closures in the April “soft data” reports. The indexes should bounce when various closure orders are lifted, but we have yet to see when this will be.

Friday – 17 April 2020

  • Gross Domestic Product (CNY, GMT 02:00) – The first Quarter of 2020 growth is expected to slow down significantly, confirming the damage the pandemic has inflicted on economies in that part of the world. The reading is expected at -10.0% q/q from the 1.5% q/q seen for the Q3 and Q4 of 2019 .
  • EU CPI inflation (EUR, GMT 09:00) – Both the core and the overall CPI inflation rates are expected to accelerate in a monthly basis to 1.1% and 0.5% respectively.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 14th April 2020.

Risk on, Risk off…


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EURJPY, in contrast to EURUSD, has nudged modestly lower on the back of a moderate safe-haven bid whıch boosted Yen. This has drıfted the pair to the mid 117.50, nearing last week’s bottom and extending its action far away from the 20-day SMA but also significantly below the midline of the 2020 downchannel for a second consecutive day.

Yesterday’s high at 118.68 has so far remained unchallenged, while yesterday’s bottom has not broken yet to confirm the continuation of decline. Risk-off conditions prevailed, weighing on the pair, though the move lower may have been exacerbated by European holiday thinned markets. Now, however, the global markets are returning to full participation following the long weekends in many financial centres in Europe and Asia-Pacific.

Economic data has been a secondary consideration even as the reports begin to show the depth of the devastation wrought by the shuttering of the economy last month — the huge declines expected in activity have been realized, and then some. Last week, to some relief, European and Eurozone finance ministers finally managed to agree on a joint support package to address the immediate costs of measures designed to address the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. There are now a number of states in the US and a number of countries in the Eurozone, including Spain and Italy, that looking at a phased reopening in economies.

Hence this is expected to keep the EUR in a choppy trading pattern in the near term between 117.30-117.93, unless sellers manage to direct a decisive move below 117.30. This could trigger March lows and a Lower Bollinger Band pattern at 116.11-116.40.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 15th April 2020.

FX Update – April 15 – Commodity Currencies Reverse.


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The commodity currencies have come under pressure with stock markets taking a step back in Asia today, and with USA500 futures showing declines of over 0.5%.

The Canadian Dollar has also declined, setting USDCAD up for its first up day in a week, with the pair posting a 2-day high at 1.3960, as oil prices remain on the back foot and as US Dollar. USOil prices have also remained heavy after it printed a 2-week low at $19.95 late yesterday, with the OPEC++ group’s near 10 mln barrel per day output cut, and hints of bigger cuts to dome, doing little to convince crude markets that producers have the will to cut production sufficiently to plug the massive supply/demand gap amid the prevailing lockdowns across many global economies.

The IMF forecast the world economy will see its sharpest contraction since the 1930s depression, which by now will not surprise many, while a study from the Harvard School of Public Health highlighted that the return to normal may be a long road, saying (of the US) that “intermittent distancing may be required into 2020 unless critical care capacity is increased substantially or a treatment of vaccine becomes available.”

Lets flip back to Canadian dollar, which its outlook so far for USDCAD was negative however a close today above 1.3990 could form a morning star pattern which is a bullish sign suggesting a potential reversal of the asset.

[IMG] [IMG]

Elsewhere, the Dollar and Yen have posted moderate gains versus the Euro and most other currencies. EURUSD drifted to a low at 1.0923.. The pair remains rejected the 50-day SMA and the 61.8% retracement level set from the upleg at the end of MArch. The overall picture remains positive as long as it sustains a move above the confluence of 50% Fib. level and 20-day SMA, at 1.0891. Intraday however the asset is oversold, hene a consolidation or a correction might follow since the asset closed the hour outside Bollinger bands. Further decline could be triggered is the asset breaks the 1.0925 level (S1).

Additionally, the biggest movers have been AUDUSD, NZDUSD, AUDJPY and NZDJPY, which have all racked up losses of well over 1%. AUDUSD, after a run of 7 consecutive days highs, has printed a 2-day low at 0.6325, reaching the S3 of the day. The pair still remains up by over 15% from the 17-year low that was printed on March 19th. However, intraday it turned below all moving averages and crossed below Ichimoku cloud, with three black crows and momentum indicators negatively configured suggesting further bearish bias, we might see the asset extending its move further southwards.

[IMG]

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 16th April 2020.

FX Update April 16 – 20 million US Citizens Unemployed?


[IMG]
Trading Leveraged Products is risky

USDJPY, H1
Relatively narrow ranges have been prevailing so far today in currency markets, into early trading in Europe. The Dollar has retained a bid, edging out fresh highs against the Australian and Canadian dollars, though remaining shy of the highs seen yesterday against the Euro and Pound. Stock markets in Asia started off in decline before either paring or more than recovering losses, while S&P 500 futures are showing a gain of nearly 1%, reversing some of the 2.2% decline the cash version of the index saw yesterday. Oil prices have remained heavy, with WTI benchmark futures sinking back under $20.00, keeping yesterday’s 21-year low at $19.20 in the frame.

[IMG] [IMG]

In news, Japan is reportedly set to declare a national emergency in the face of a spike in confirmed coronavirus cases, while other countries, including Germany, Denmark, Norway and Austria, are taking first steps to loosen lockdown measures. Australia released better than expected March jobs data, though this was quickly discarded as being a false signal as the data period didn’t fully cover the impact of economic lockdowns. Similarly, a 4.3% drop in the UK’s BRC retail sales figure in March significantly understated the true current picture as it captured a surge in sales in the couple of weeks leading up to the nation going into lockdown.

[IMG] [IMG]

The US will today release weekly jobless claims for the week to April 11th, a data series that has been best capturing the real-time impact of virus-containing measures in the world’s biggest economy. The median forecast is for another big surge, of 5,000k, though even this would mark a deceleration as states catch up with the processing of claims from the late-March to early-April period. Expectations vary significantly this week from lows of 1,000k to 7,000k. The outlook remains uncertain, with close to 20 million US citizens likely to be claiming unemployment benefit for the first time in the last month, representing over 13% of the workforce. However, a phased, partial reopening of economies is starting to happen, with President Trump expected to announce his plans later today, but it’s looking clear that the road to back to normalcy will be a long one, with a cure or vaccine not likely to be available until next year. Such a backdrop would keep the Dollar, Yen and other safe havens broadly underpinned while curtailing upside potential of commodity and emerging market currencies.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 17th April 2020.

European Update | April 17.


[IMG]

As we move towards European session and on US open, the narrow trade-weighted USDIndex has lifted from moderate losses to a 0.3% gain on the day, while the safe-have Yen is also now outperforming. COil prices have plunged to fresh decade lows, and the likes of the Australian and Canadian dollars have more than reversed intraday gains that were being seen in the Asian session. The Dollar, looks to have broken its inverse correlation with global stock market direction.

European stock markets have rallied, with a 4% jump in the French CAC 40 leading the way. GER30 and UK100 are up 3.7% and 3.2% respectively and markets are in full risk on mode, with US futures posting gains of 2-3%. Asian stock markets shrugged off the first contraction in China’s economy for decades and investors are focusing on some encouraging headlines on drug trials in the battle to get Covid-19 under control. Weak data releases out of China for Q1 were overlooked and largely expected.

EURUSD has dropped back amid a general bout of Dollar gains, which has pushed the pair to a 10-day low at 1.0811. The risk-on sentiment isn’t covering the full spectrum of asset classes and currencies. EURUSD at prevailing levels is a little to the south of the halfway mark of the volatile range that was seen during the height of the market panic in March. The rapid deployment of monetary stimulus measures by the Fed, and expectations for more, have impacted the Dollar in recent weeks, having satiated what had been a surge in demand for the world’s reserve currency.

The EURUSD decline is mainly driven by the “safety” on dollar however the european data earlier also kept the common currency under pressure. Eurozone HICP inflation confirmed at 0.7% y/y, in line with the preliminary number and down from 1.2% y/y in the previous month. No surprise there then and the full breakdown confirmed that lower energy prices were a key factor behind the deceleration in the headline rate. Services price inflation also decelerated,while looking further ahead once lockdowns are eased goods prices are likely to accelerate amid the likely surge in demand, but large parts of the services sector will continue to struggle.

European car registrations dropped 51.8% y/y in March, with Eurozone numbers down nearly 60%. Hardly a surprise considering lockdown rules across countries and the April number is likely to be worse. The main question is how strong the rebound will be once restrictions are eased and whether the sharp rise in jobless numbers will lead to a general decline in demand this year.

Hence EURUSD after whipping between a 1.0637 low and a 1.1494 high in March, remain in a choppy trading pattern, lacking clear directional bias for now in the medium term. Also it worths mentioning that it moves within a descending triangle since March top. The daily indicators meanwhile continue to be negatively configured however as RSI is slopping at neutral zone since April 1st, along with the flat signal line of MACD, the medium term points consolidation.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 20th April 2020.

Events To Look Out For This Week


[IMG]

In the US, weekly jobless claims will remain every week’s highlight. In Europe and the rest of the world, meanwhile, trade and manufacturing data, along with Inflation data, will be the most data-heavy releases. Lastly, European finance ministers will meet again to discuss a way forward.
Monday – 20 April 2020

  • PBoC Interest Rate Decision (CNY, GMT 01:30) –The People’s Bank of China injected $100 billion into the economy through a reduction in reserve ratios for banks, while it also offered discounts to banks’ reserve ratios of between half and 1 percentage point from their original level.

Tuesday – 21 April 2020
 

  • RBA Minutes and Gov. Lowe Speech (AUD, GMT 01:30 & 05:00) – The RBA minutes should provide guidance as to whether the RBA members are actually prepared for further easing. The bank in its last meeting refrained from cutting interest rates, while pledging to maintain its new (as of March) yield target on 3-year bonds at 0.25%. This, coupled with the Australian government’s fiscal response, was considered a big enough policy response to the prevailing headlines caused by domestic and global coronavirus containment measures.
  • Average Earnings (GBP, GMT 06:00) – Average Earnings excluding bonus are expected to have grown by 3.2% in February. The ILO unemployment rate is expected to have declined slightly at 3.8% (3M).
  • Economic Sentiment (EUR, GMT 09:00) – German ZEW economic sentiment for April is expected to have improved slightly at -43.0, after plunging to -49.5 from 8.7 in March.
  • Retail Sales (USD, GMT 12:30) – February is expected to have flattened (0.0%) for headline retail sales while the ex-auto figure is expected to be unchanged.

Wednesday – 22 April 2020
 

  • Consumer Price Index (GBP, GMT 06:00) – Prices are expected to have eased in March, with overall inflation expected to stand at 1.7% y/y, and core at 1.5% from 1.7% y/y last month.
  • Consumer Price Index and Core (CAD, GMT 12:30) – The average of the three core CPI measures for March is expected to come out lower than last month, at 2.1% y/y from 2.2% y/y. Economic data is on the back burner as the market grapples with the fallout from COVID-19. Canada has closed its border to all but Americans. PM Trudeau revealed a stimulus plan which is worth about 1% of Canada’s economy.

Thursday – 23 April 2020
 

  • European Council Meeting
  • Retail Sales (GBP, GMT 06:00) – UK retail sales expected to finally give the first real insight into the UK’s post-lockdown economic hit.
  • Markit PMI (EUR, GMT 07:30-08:00) – The prel. April manufacturing PMI is forecasted to register a downwards reading to 40.0 following the 44.5 last month. Services, on the flip side, are seen higher at 39.0 from 26.4.
  • Jobless Claims (USD, GMT 12:30) – US initial jobless claims fell -1,370k to 5,245k in the week ended April 11 after easing -252k to 6,615k in the week ended April 4. The disruptions from COVID-19 and the government’s policies including containment and relief measures are expected to continue boosting claims to unprecedented levels.

Friday – 24 April 2020
 

  • German IFO (EUR, GMT 08:00) – German IFO business confidence is seen drifting to 77.2after it fell back to 86.1 – the lowest reading since 2009. Germany is in lockdown, even if restrictions are still not quite as strict as in other countries, with death rates still relatively low. Still, it is clear that there will be a sharp recession.
  • Durable Goods (USD, GMT 12:30) – Durable goods orders are expected to fall -13.0% in March with a -23% plunge in transportation orders, after a 1.2% headline orders increase in February that benefited from a 4.6% transportation orders rebound.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 21st April 2020.

FX Update – April 21 – USD Remains Bid.


[IMG]

EURUSD, H1
Currencies have once again adopted a risk-off positioning formation as global stock and commodity markets tumble. The Yen, closely followed by the Dollar, have taken the lead in the outperforming pack while the commodity currencies have taken a lead in the underperforming group. Asian stock markets saw their biggest single-day sell-off in a month while the pan-Europe STOXX 600 equity index fell by nearly 2.5% as S&P 500 futures declined by over 1.5% after the cash version of the index closed out yesterday 1.8% for the worse. Yesterday’s oil rout spooked investors, and while some economies are starting to reopen from lockdowns, the road back to normalcy is clearly going to be a long one. Amid this backdrop, the narrow trade-weighted USD index printed a thirteen-day high at 100.37 while EURUSD concurrently ebbed to a four-day low at 1.0819. The Yen outperformed, moderately against the Dollar, but more so against the Euro and even more versus the underperforming commodity currencies. USD-JPY printed a five-day low at 107.29, while EUR-JPY forayed into 19-day low territory. AUD-JPY, a forex market barometer of risk appetite in global markets, and a currency proxy of China, declined by some 0.7% in making a two-week low at 67.40. AUD-USD printed a four-day low at 0.6270. USD-CAD rallied to a 15-day high at 1.4266. While yesterday’s rout in the expiring May WTI contract, and the aberration of negative pricing has come and gone, June futures today have been highly volatile, opening above $21.0, diving to a low at $11.79 before rebounding back above $15.00. One potential support for oil prices is the fast reducing space at crude storage facilities, which is likely to force oil producers into big output cuts. President Trump, also, said that the US is considering halting Saudi oil imports.

[IMG]

EURUSD ebbed to a four-day low at 1.0820, with the pair driven once again by a broader move in the Dollar. EURUSD continues to trade a little to the south of the halfway mark of the volatile range that was seen during the height of the market panic in March. The rapid deployment of monetary stimulus measures by the Fed, and expectations for more, have impacted the Dollar in recent weeks, having satiated what had been a surge in demand for the world’s reserve currency.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 22nd April 2020.

Gold Analysis – 22 April 2020.


[IMG]

XAUUSD, H1
Bank of America (BofA) has a bullish view on gold and expects the prices of the precious metal to hit the $3,000 mark per ounce within the next 18 months, according to the bank’s latest report titled “The Fed can’t print gold.” (Barrons.com)¹

At the moment, everything is about the current crisis and what we can do to avoid a deeper economic recession. With the central banks providing more stimulus packages, however, the question is how banks and governments going to cover the cash pumped into the market. As we can see in the BofA report, it is true: the FED can print money, but not Gold. The FED can print money, but it cannot guarantee that it will be good enough for economic engines to restart again, as we do not know how societies will react after this storm. What if, after the international lockdown, people’s habits change and they do not go out right away to spend money on more international travel, have parties or sit in cafes, like they were doing before? In this case, retail sales and services, and, as a result, GDP, will not be able to recover to its previous numbers in a short space of time.

Collective habits always lead the way in showing how an economy is going to grow, this means that the above-mentioned possibilities, does not mean that we will have a worse life or situation in the future, but simply that we will have different ways of socializing, and that, for as long as we are in the “Transition period”, safe havens will be in demand as investors decide where to invest more in the future, which will help the yellow metal and some other safe havens like the USD to grow in the middle term and even longer, perhaps for the next 1-2 years.

Gold technical overview – H1 chart
RSI is flat at 50. The price moved above the OBV trend line, but is also flat, while Parabolic SAR dots are forming under the candles, supporting the bulls. $1694 and $1670, the the upper and lower Bollinger bands, are the resistance and support levels at this time, while gold is trading at the very important level of 1685.
 

  • Pivot point: 1682.26
  • Resistance levels: 1704.26 / 1719.68
  • Support levels: 1667.12 / 1644.84

Today, the expected trading range is between 1644.84 support and 1704.26 resistance.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 23rd April 2020.


A dismal day!

 

[IMG]

 

Eurozone April PMI numbers looked dismal, with lockdowns across Europe really hitting home this month. The manufacturing sector outperformed, but the reading still dropped to 33.6 from 44.5 in March. Similarly to Japanese numbers this morning, the services sector collapsed and the reading dropped to 11.7 from 26.4.

 

The hospitality and tourism sectors in particular have been hit and for tourism in particular there is no chance of a quick recovery. The declines were the steepest ever recorded and new business inflows collapsed. Markit reported that “expectations of output in the coming 12 months dropped marginally below the previous nadir in March, thanks to a new record degree of pessimism in manufacturing”. Job cuts accelerated and average prices fell at the sharpest rate since June 2009. Clearly the extent of the slump is pretty scary and will add to pressure on EU heads of states, who today will discuss stimulus measures designed to kick start the recovery once restrictions have eased sufficiently.

 

A large scale investment program financed through the European Investment Bank is expected, while the EU’s multi-annual budget although any real stimulus can also have a lasting effect once things get back to normal and when that will be depends to a large extend on virus developments, rather than a political will.

 

Additionally, the German GfK consumer confidence dropped to -23.4 in the May reading from 2.3 in April. A dismal number again and indeed a series low that clearly reflects the impact of crisis measures and highlights that government efforts such as subsidised wages are not sufficient. The full breakdown is only available until April, but already signalled a collapse in business expectations and the willingness to buy as income expectations turn negative.

 

[IMG]

 

Stock market sentiment was hit by the numbers and GER30 and UK100 are currently down -0.6% and -0.3% respectively. EURUSD has remained heavy, edging out a low at 1.0783. This is a move outside the 5-day range (1.0810-1.0890). Hence with momentum indicators in the medium and long term remaining strongly negative and with the asset price in a descending triangle since February, a sustenance of a decline below 1.0800 could turn the attention March lows again. However we need to see a decisive daily or weekly candle below 1.0770.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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