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Date : 31st October 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 31st October 2018.


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FX News Today

Asian Market Wrap: 10-year Treasury yields are up 1.3 bp at 3.136%, the 10-year JGB yield is up 0.5 bp at 0.115%. BoJ left policy unchanged and kept the 10-year bond yield target at about zero as the revised forecasts show inflation below target for years to come. Inflation came in lower than expected in Australia, and China’s manufacturing activity is feeling the strain of the trade war with the US and the manufacturing PMI fell back to just 50.2, effectively signalling stagnation. Despite this Asian stock markets moved mostly higher and are bound to end the month on a more positive note, although this is still to be the worst month for global equities in more than 6 years. China’s overnight Repo rate surged amid official efforts to stem bets against the Yuan. Earnings reports remain in focus ahead of Apple results and Friday’s US jobs reports. Buyers may be attracted by cheaper valuations, but trade concerns continue to cloud over sentiment. Topix and Nikkei are up 2.15% and 2.16% respectively, the Hang Seng gained 0.99% and Shanghai and Shenzhen Comp are up 1.26% and 1.48%. The ASX underperformed, but is also up 0.43%, as are US stock futures.

European Fixed Income Outlook: December 10-year Bund future opened at 160.20, down from a close of 160.44 yesterday. The 10-year cash yield is up 1.1 bp at 0.378% in opening trade, despite weaker than expected German retail sales data at the start of the session. BTPs are coming back from yesterday’s slump and the reversal of safe haven flows are adding to the general trend of rising yields at the long end as stock markets seem intent on ending a disastrous month on a more positive note. Treasury and JGB yields also moved higher, UK stock futures are rising with US futures after a largely positive session in Asia. Today’s calendar still has Eurozone inflation and labour market data as well as ECB speakers and Spanish GDP numbers.

Charts of the Day

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Main Macro Events Today

  • Euro CPI and Core – Expectations – Eurozone HICP seen lifting to 2.2% y/y from 2.1% y/y in September. Underlying inflation is also expected to rise as base effects from changes to education charges in Italy that have kept the Italian rate low over the past year, will finally fall out of the equation with the October number.
  • Canadian GDP – Expectations – The August GDP is expected to expand 0.1% (m/m, sa) after the 0.2% gain in July.
  • Crude Oil Inventories – Expectations – It is expected to fall to 3.6M barrels from 6.3M last week.
  • US ADP Employment Change – Expectations – The ADP employment survey is seen +215k for October vs +230k and the Employment Cost Index (ECI) is expected to rise 0.8% in Q3, shifting up from a gain of 0.6% in Q2. Chicago PMI is seen in a holding pattern near 60.5 in October.

Support and Resistance Levels
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Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 1st November 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 1st November 2018.


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FX News Today

European Fixed Income Outlook: The December 10-year Bund future opened at 160.23 marginally down from the close of 160.26 yesterday. 10-year Bund yields are down -0.3 bp at 0.380% in opening trade, 10-year JGB yields are down 0.5 bp, while Treasury rates climbed 1.0 bp to 3.115%. The month end recovery on stock markets started to fray at the edges during the Asian session with Japanese bourses under pressure again and NASDAQ futures also heading south. UK and DAX futures are also pointing to a weaker open in Europe despite reports that the UK and the EU have reached a tentative deal on financial services that would continue to give UK banks access to the European market. The report boosted the Pound, which in turn will likely keep a lid on the FTSE 100 as the focus turns to the BoE announcement. The central bank is widely expected to keep policy unchanged, leaving the focus on the inflation report and updated projections. Released at the start of the session, Nationwide house price data was lacklustre and today’s October manufacturing PMIs are also unlikely to be a reason to cheer, with Euro Area numbers expected to confirm weak preliminary readings and the UK PMI seen falling back markedly.

Asian Market Wrap: 10-year Treasury yields moved up 1.0 bp to 3.153% overnight while JGBs recovered early losses and rates fell back -0.2 bp to 0.114%, after Japan tapped 10-year bonds for 2.25 yen. JGBs were also underpinned by losses of -0.85% and -1.06% in Topix and Nikkei, which were led by the telecommunication sector amid concerns over pricing pressures. Signals from China that further stimulus measures are underway helped other markets to move higher, while reports from The Times of London that the UK and the EU have reached a tentative deal on continued access of financial services in the UK to the European market after Brexit, strengthened the Pound and added to the improvement in risk appetite after a strong close on Wall Street yesterday. China’s manufacturing PMI improved marginally to 50.1 from 50.0. Hang Seng and SSE gained 1.42% and 0.13% respectively. The Shenzhen Comp rose 1.08% and the ASX 0.18%. U.S. stock futures are mixed, with the NASDAQ future underperforming. Oil prices are slightly lower and the front end Nymex future is trading at USD 64.93 per barrel.

Charts of the Day

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Main Macro Events Today

  • Swiss CPI – Expectations – Inflation in Switzerland is expected to have stood at 1.1% in October, registering a slight increase from 1% in September.
  • BoE Interest Rate Decision – Expectations – Brexit news still drive the Sterling with no changes anticipated for either the interest rate or QE. BoE is likely to repeat that a gradual, 25 bp hike per year, policy is what it is currently following.
  • US Productivity and Unit Labour Costs – Expectations – Productivity is expected to continue its increase, registering a 2% rise compared to last quarter, while labour costs are expected to have increased by 1.2% in Q3.
  • US Manufacturing PMIs – Expectations – The US PMI is expected to come out at 59, compared to 59.8 last month, still suggesting growth, despite its slight decline.

Support and Resistance Levels
[IMG]

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Dr Nektarios Michail
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 2nd November 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 2nd November 2018.


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FX News Today

Asian Market Wrap: 10-year Treasury yields are up 3.8 bp at 3.168%, 10-year JGB yields jumped 1.2 bp to 0.121% as Asian shares rallied on trade hopes. Bloomberg reported that Trump is seeking to reach a trade deal with China at the G20 meeting in Argentina later this month and has asked officials to begin drafting potential terms, with other reports suggesting that intellectual property rights are a key sticking point. Apple warned that sales for the crucial holiday quarter may miss expectations, but this was shrugged off amid hopes of a trade deal, which together with yesterday’s pledge from Chinese officials to support demand saw Topix and Nikkei gaining 1.64% and 2.56% respectively. The Hang Seng outperformed and was up 3.66% as of 6:08 GMT. The CSI also rose 3% and Shanghai and Shenzhen Comp gained 2.20% and 2.86%. US stock futures are also higher and oil prices reached a high of USD 63.95 per barrel, before falling back to now USD 63.81.

FX Update: The Dollar and the Yen have traded generally weaker against most other currencies amid a backdrop of strongly-rebounding global stock markets. An ease between the US and China on trade, along with overall decent corporate earnings, mostly firm US data this week, and a plethora of stock-boosting measures by Beijing, have collectively elicited a rebound in stock markets. USDJPY has recouped to the 113.00 area, though Yen crosses have generally rallied by bigger magnitudes. The biggest percentage gainer has been AUDJPY, which has gained over 0.7% in what is now its sixth consecutive up day. EURUSD has rallied a third consecutive up day, posting a 9-day high of 1.1440 so far. The AUDUSD pegged a 5-week high at 0.7250, and USDCAD descended to an 8-day low at 1.3053, despite another sharp leg low in oil prices yesterday, which sent WTI benchmark prices to 7-month lows near $63.00.

Charts of the Day


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Main Macro Events Today
  • Euro Manufacturing PMI – Expectations – Eurozone PMI is expected to remain unchanged.
  • UK Construction PMI – Expectations – The October Construction PMI is expected to slip slightly by 52.00 after the 52.1 expansion seen in September.
  • Canadian Employment Change and Trade Balance – Expectations – The employment should post a 15.0k gain in October jobs, following the 63.3k rise in September. The pace of wage growth is expected to slow further. The trade surplus is anticipated to narrow slightly to C$0.4 bln in September from C$0.5 bln in August.
  • US Non-Farm Payrolls – Expectations – The October US employment expect to see a 194k headline for the month with a 195k private employment figure and unemployment holding steady at 3.7% for a second month. No disruption is expected from the landfalls of hurricanes Michael and Florence but the timing of these two events means that the impact on October payrolls will likely be offsetting.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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