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Date : 7th November 2019.

BoE seen on hold – Not interfering with politics 7th November 2019.


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The BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee announces the outcome of this week’s meeting today. The strong consensus is for no change, which would leave the repo rate at 0.75% and QE totals unchanged, though there is a chance that we’ll see dovish dissent amid the ranks of the nine-member committee, with members Saunders and Vlieghe having recently voiced concern about the damage that Brexit uncertainty is doing.

Most members look be preferring to remain on hold into the December general election. Both of the principal parties in the UK, the Conservatives and Labour, are pledging fiscal spending if they are elected, which won’t have gone unnoticed at the MPC.

The BoE will also release its quarterly Inflation Report, which isn’t expected to show much change to existing projections, although it is clear that the prolonged uncertainty is increasingly damaging the outlook and has already led to a sharp decline in investment. London markets are pricing in about 45% odds for a 25 bps rate cut by next May, and an 85% chance for such a move by the end of 2020.

Meanwhile….UK’s December Election on December 12!

The divided parliament finally threw in the towel and the UK is now heading for a general election on December 12 to try and break the deadlock on the Brexit front. It is a risky move for Johnson, who so far has been rejecting the advances of the Brexit party, which is campaigning for a no-deal scenario and if Johnson continues to hold out there is the risk that not just the anti-Brexit, but also the pro-Brexit vote will be split.

That means another split parliament cannot be ruled out and if the Brexit party were to gain a sizeable number of seats it would increase the pressure on Johnson to go ahead with a no-deal scenario.

In any case, Johnson has pledged to stick to the current time table for the transition period, which will give him just a year to get a trade deal with the EU wrapped up. Even if Johnson’s ambitions on that front are not as high as May’s this seems an impossibly short time to get a meaningful arrangement wrapped up. In any case, Johnson’s deal looks set to involve nothing like the “friction less” trade that U.K. manufacturers will be looking for and border checks will likely still disrupt supply chains across Europe.

And GBP Waiting for Brexit resolution

From month-ago levels, the Pound is the strongest performer out of the main currencies, up 5% against the Dollar and by over 6% versus the Euro. The gains reflect an unwinding in the Pound’s Brexit discount, with a Halloween no-deal Brexit scenario having been avoided.

The broad trade-weighted measure of the Pound is expected to retain at about a 8-9% discount relative to levels prevailing ahead of the July 2015 Brexit vote, which has been pared back from lows of 15%-plus. As the UK now finds itself with Brexit delayed for a second time and once again in a quagmire of political uncertainty, no significant unwinding is anticipating for Sterling’s Brexit discount as all options remain open with regard to how Brexit is resolved — ranging from no deal to Brexit cancelled, depending on the results of the December-12 general election and any referendum after the election.

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Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst

HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 08th November 2019.

FX Action | 08th November 2019.

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EUR: Retests 50-day SMA

Asset:EURUSD 1.1048
Daily bias: Ranging intraday sentiment    
Week’s Range: 1.1026 – 1.1058

* EURUSD has been playing a narrow range near 1.1050, above the 23-month low seen yesterday at 1.1036. The pair is showing a net loss of just over 1% from week-ago levels, coming after the surprisingly strong US jobs report of last Friday, and followed-up this week by decent non-manufacturing ISM and initial jobless claims data.A sputtering Eurozone economy has been put into relatively sharp contrast by data showing the U.S. economy to be in finer fettle than many were fearing, while the CME’s FedWatch Tool is showing market pricing to have factored in decreasing probability for a rate cut at the December FOMC, with only 5% down from 22% last week (before the October payrolls release).

* Overall, EURUSD holds in a bearish outlook. EURUSD has been amid a bear trend that’s been unfolding since early 2018, from levels around 1.2500 and it is just abreath away from breaking the 50-day SMA. A close today below the latter could seen the retest of 1.1000 and 1.0970 levels.

* The trend has coincided with the 10-year T-note versus 10-year Bund yield differential having narrowed from 278 bps to the current 216 bps.


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JPY: AUDJPY reverses gains
Asset: USDJPY 75.36
Daily bias: Bearish
Week’s Range: 74.73-75.80

* Narrow ranges have been seen so far today among the main currencies, which comes with a degree of uncertainty creeping back in with regard to the prospects of a “phase 1” trade deal being reached between the US and China. There are reports of fierce internal opposition among members of the Trump administration, while there is conjecture that President Trump will be emboldened by recent relatively strong U.S. data releases and the record highs on Wall Street and will be apt to take a tough stance against Beijing. This has seen Asian stock markets turn softer.

* USDJPY, after scaling to a 5-month high at 109.48, has settled around 109.20-30, while has currently return northwards again. AUDJPY, which has been an outperformer amid the recent risk-on phase (showing a 7.4% gain at prevailing levels from late-August lows), has also settled lower after printing a 3-month peak yesterday. It is currently retest the midpoint of yesterday’s rally. A confirm move below the latter at the top of the ahour, along with the RSI below 50 suggest the increase of negative bias and therefore a possible retest of 74.90-74.98 ( 61.8% Fib and 200-period SMA) or even lower at the S1 of the day, i.e. 74.73. The strengthening of negative bias is also presented by the lower Bollinger bands which are extending southwards.

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CAD: Remains buoyant
Spot: USDCAD 1.3171
Weekly bias: Bearish
Week’s Range: 1.3118 – 1.3230    

USDCAD has remained buoyant after posting a 9-day high yesterday at 1.3197. The high has come with the US 10-year over Canadian 10-year yield spread having been trending wider, overall, over the last three weeks, rising from about 19 bp to 29 bp, which has offset a moderate rise in oil prices over this period (oil prices have been trending sideways, within about a $13 range, over the last five months).

USDCAD USDCAD earlier in the week printed a 1-week low at 1.3015 before rebounding. Taking a couple of steps back, USDCAD is near to the midpoint of the range that’s been seen over the last 4-plus years, and there presently doesn’t look to be much potential for this pattern to break. The focus today falls on Canada’s October employment report. From the technical perspective, the asset has broke a significant Resistance level at 1.3195, which represents the 50-day EMA and the 6 day’s high. This along with the positive configuration of RSI suggest that we could seen further upside for the day. ENxt Resistance levels are at 1.3213 and 1.3230 (200-day EMA). Support is at the PP and the low of the day , i.e 1.3170-1.3176.

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Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 11th November 2019.

Events to Look Out For Next Week 11th November 2019.


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Important events are coming up this week, with UK, China and US inflation and GDP releases.

Monday – 11 November 2019

  • Gross Domestic Product (GBP, GMT 09:30) – UK growth has “slowed materially” this year due to Brexit uncertainty and global trade wars. September forecasts see GDP growth steady, while the preliminary outcome for Q3 is anticipated to slow down.

Tuesday – 12 November 2019

  • ILO & Average Earnings Index 3m/y (GBP, GMT 09:30) – UK Earnings with the bonus-excluded figure are seen unchanged at 3.8% y/y in the three months to September. UK ILO unemployment is expected steady at 3.9%.
  • ZEW Economic Sentiment (EUR, GMT 10:00) – Economic Sentiment for November is projected at -22.7 from the -22.8 seen last month, as the current conditions indicator for Germany turned negative. The overall Eurozone reading though is expected to decline slightly further to -32.5 from -23.5. A lower than expected outcome ties in with the stagnation in market sentiment.

Wednesday – 13 November 2019

  • Interest Rate Decision, Monetary Policy Statement and Press Conference (NZD, GMT 01:00) – The RBNZ is widely expected to proceed with a 25 bp cut to 0.75% as it continues to ease policy amid the slowing in growth. However, it will be interesting to see whether RBNZ will signal further easing in contrast with the latest encouraging economic data.
  • Consumer Price Index (GBP, GMT 09:30) – The UK CPI is expected to rebound to a 1.8% y/y rate in October after dipping to 1.7% in September and August from 2.1% in July.
  • Consumer Price Index (USD, GMT 13:30) – A 0.3% October headline CPI rise is anticipated with a 0.2% core price increase, following respective September readings of flat and 0.1%. As-expected gains would result in a headline y/y increase of 1.7% for a third consecutive month, just as core prices rise 2.4% y/y for a third consecutive month. An up-tilt in y/y gains into Q1 of 2020 is expected due to harder comparisons and some lift from tariff increases that should leave gains in the 2.4% area, which may help ease concerns about persistent inflation undershoots of the Fed’s 2% objective.
  • Powell’s 2-day Testimony (USD, GMT 16:00) – Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell testifies before Congress, providing a broad overview of the economy and monetary policy.

Thursday – 14 November 2019

  • Employment Data (AUD, GMT 00:30) – While the unemployment rate is expected to have increase at 5.3% in October, employment change is expected to have stabilized, at 15K compared to 14.7K last month.
  • Retail Sales ex Fuel (GBP, GMT 09:30) – UK Retail Sales are expected to have dipped with a -0.9% ex-auto figure on a m/m basis.
  • Gross Domestic Product (EUR, GMT 13:30) – Eurozone Q3 GDP growth held steady at 0.2% q/q – a better than expected report that highlighted once again that it is a mistake to reduce the Eurozone economy to the German manufacturing sector alone. The same outcome is expected on Thursday as well, at 0.2% q/q for Eurozone preliminary reading.

Friday – 15 November 2019

  • Retail Sales (USD, GMT 14:30) – A 0.4% October gains for both the retail sales headline and the ex-auto figures have been estimated, following a -0.3% September headline dip with a -0.1% ex-auto figure. Gasoline prices should give a boost to retail activity given an estimated 4% increase for the CPI gasoline index. Unit vehicle sales should ease in October with a dip to an estimated 17.0 mln pace from 17.2 mln in September. Real consumer spending is expected to grow at a 2.6% rate in Q4, following the 2.9% Q3 clip.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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বিডিপিপস বাংলাদেশের সর্বপ্রথম অনলাইন ফরেক্স কমিউনিটি এবং বাংলা ফরেক্স স্কুল। প্রথমেই বলে রাখা জরুরি, বিডিপিপস কাউকে ফরেক্স ট্রেডিংয়ে অনুপ্রাণিত করে না। যারা বর্তমানে ফরেক্স ট্রেডিং করছেন, শুধুমাত্র তাদের জন্যই বিডিপিপস একটি আলোচনা এবং অ্যানালাইসিস পোর্টাল। ফরেক্স ট্রেডিং একটি ব্যবসা এবং উচ্চ লিভারেজ নিয়ে ট্রেড করলে তাতে যথেষ্ট ঝুকি রয়েছে। যারা ফরেক্স ট্রেডিংয়ের যাবতীয় ঝুকি সম্পর্কে সচেতন এবং বর্তমানে ফরেক্স ট্রেডিং করছেন, বিডিপিপস শুধুমাত্র তাদের ফরেক্স শেখা এবং উন্নত ট্রেডিংয়ের জন্য সহযোগিতা প্রদান করার চেষ্টা করে।

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