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Date : 7th November 2019.

BoE seen on hold – Not interfering with politics 7th November 2019.


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The BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee announces the outcome of this week’s meeting today. The strong consensus is for no change, which would leave the repo rate at 0.75% and QE totals unchanged, though there is a chance that we’ll see dovish dissent amid the ranks of the nine-member committee, with members Saunders and Vlieghe having recently voiced concern about the damage that Brexit uncertainty is doing.

Most members look be preferring to remain on hold into the December general election. Both of the principal parties in the UK, the Conservatives and Labour, are pledging fiscal spending if they are elected, which won’t have gone unnoticed at the MPC.

The BoE will also release its quarterly Inflation Report, which isn’t expected to show much change to existing projections, although it is clear that the prolonged uncertainty is increasingly damaging the outlook and has already led to a sharp decline in investment. London markets are pricing in about 45% odds for a 25 bps rate cut by next May, and an 85% chance for such a move by the end of 2020.

Meanwhile….UK’s December Election on December 12!

The divided parliament finally threw in the towel and the UK is now heading for a general election on December 12 to try and break the deadlock on the Brexit front. It is a risky move for Johnson, who so far has been rejecting the advances of the Brexit party, which is campaigning for a no-deal scenario and if Johnson continues to hold out there is the risk that not just the anti-Brexit, but also the pro-Brexit vote will be split.

That means another split parliament cannot be ruled out and if the Brexit party were to gain a sizeable number of seats it would increase the pressure on Johnson to go ahead with a no-deal scenario.

In any case, Johnson has pledged to stick to the current time table for the transition period, which will give him just a year to get a trade deal with the EU wrapped up. Even if Johnson’s ambitions on that front are not as high as May’s this seems an impossibly short time to get a meaningful arrangement wrapped up. In any case, Johnson’s deal looks set to involve nothing like the “friction less” trade that U.K. manufacturers will be looking for and border checks will likely still disrupt supply chains across Europe.

And GBP Waiting for Brexit resolution

From month-ago levels, the Pound is the strongest performer out of the main currencies, up 5% against the Dollar and by over 6% versus the Euro. The gains reflect an unwinding in the Pound’s Brexit discount, with a Halloween no-deal Brexit scenario having been avoided.

The broad trade-weighted measure of the Pound is expected to retain at about a 8-9% discount relative to levels prevailing ahead of the July 2015 Brexit vote, which has been pared back from lows of 15%-plus. As the UK now finds itself with Brexit delayed for a second time and once again in a quagmire of political uncertainty, no significant unwinding is anticipating for Sterling’s Brexit discount as all options remain open with regard to how Brexit is resolved — ranging from no deal to Brexit cancelled, depending on the results of the December-12 general election and any referendum after the election.

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Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst

HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 08th November 2019.

FX Action | 08th November 2019.

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EUR: Retests 50-day SMA

Asset:EURUSD 1.1048
Daily bias: Ranging intraday sentiment    
Week’s Range: 1.1026 – 1.1058

* EURUSD has been playing a narrow range near 1.1050, above the 23-month low seen yesterday at 1.1036. The pair is showing a net loss of just over 1% from week-ago levels, coming after the surprisingly strong US jobs report of last Friday, and followed-up this week by decent non-manufacturing ISM and initial jobless claims data.A sputtering Eurozone economy has been put into relatively sharp contrast by data showing the U.S. economy to be in finer fettle than many were fearing, while the CME’s FedWatch Tool is showing market pricing to have factored in decreasing probability for a rate cut at the December FOMC, with only 5% down from 22% last week (before the October payrolls release).

* Overall, EURUSD holds in a bearish outlook. EURUSD has been amid a bear trend that’s been unfolding since early 2018, from levels around 1.2500 and it is just abreath away from breaking the 50-day SMA. A close today below the latter could seen the retest of 1.1000 and 1.0970 levels.

* The trend has coincided with the 10-year T-note versus 10-year Bund yield differential having narrowed from 278 bps to the current 216 bps.


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JPY: AUDJPY reverses gains
Asset: USDJPY 75.36
Daily bias: Bearish
Week’s Range: 74.73-75.80

* Narrow ranges have been seen so far today among the main currencies, which comes with a degree of uncertainty creeping back in with regard to the prospects of a “phase 1” trade deal being reached between the US and China. There are reports of fierce internal opposition among members of the Trump administration, while there is conjecture that President Trump will be emboldened by recent relatively strong U.S. data releases and the record highs on Wall Street and will be apt to take a tough stance against Beijing. This has seen Asian stock markets turn softer.

* USDJPY, after scaling to a 5-month high at 109.48, has settled around 109.20-30, while has currently return northwards again. AUDJPY, which has been an outperformer amid the recent risk-on phase (showing a 7.4% gain at prevailing levels from late-August lows), has also settled lower after printing a 3-month peak yesterday. It is currently retest the midpoint of yesterday’s rally. A confirm move below the latter at the top of the ahour, along with the RSI below 50 suggest the increase of negative bias and therefore a possible retest of 74.90-74.98 ( 61.8% Fib and 200-period SMA) or even lower at the S1 of the day, i.e. 74.73. The strengthening of negative bias is also presented by the lower Bollinger bands which are extending southwards.

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CAD: Remains buoyant
Spot: USDCAD 1.3171
Weekly bias: Bearish
Week’s Range: 1.3118 – 1.3230    

USDCAD has remained buoyant after posting a 9-day high yesterday at 1.3197. The high has come with the US 10-year over Canadian 10-year yield spread having been trending wider, overall, over the last three weeks, rising from about 19 bp to 29 bp, which has offset a moderate rise in oil prices over this period (oil prices have been trending sideways, within about a $13 range, over the last five months).

USDCAD USDCAD earlier in the week printed a 1-week low at 1.3015 before rebounding. Taking a couple of steps back, USDCAD is near to the midpoint of the range that’s been seen over the last 4-plus years, and there presently doesn’t look to be much potential for this pattern to break. The focus today falls on Canada’s October employment report. From the technical perspective, the asset has broke a significant Resistance level at 1.3195, which represents the 50-day EMA and the 6 day’s high. This along with the positive configuration of RSI suggest that we could seen further upside for the day. ENxt Resistance levels are at 1.3213 and 1.3230 (200-day EMA). Support is at the PP and the low of the day , i.e 1.3170-1.3176.

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Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 11th November 2019.

Events to Look Out For Next Week 11th November 2019.


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Important events are coming up this week, with UK, China and US inflation and GDP releases.

Monday – 11 November 2019

  • Gross Domestic Product (GBP, GMT 09:30) – UK growth has “slowed materially” this year due to Brexit uncertainty and global trade wars. September forecasts see GDP growth steady, while the preliminary outcome for Q3 is anticipated to slow down.

Tuesday – 12 November 2019

  • ILO & Average Earnings Index 3m/y (GBP, GMT 09:30) – UK Earnings with the bonus-excluded figure are seen unchanged at 3.8% y/y in the three months to September. UK ILO unemployment is expected steady at 3.9%.
  • ZEW Economic Sentiment (EUR, GMT 10:00) – Economic Sentiment for November is projected at -22.7 from the -22.8 seen last month, as the current conditions indicator for Germany turned negative. The overall Eurozone reading though is expected to decline slightly further to -32.5 from -23.5. A lower than expected outcome ties in with the stagnation in market sentiment.

Wednesday – 13 November 2019

  • Interest Rate Decision, Monetary Policy Statement and Press Conference (NZD, GMT 01:00) – The RBNZ is widely expected to proceed with a 25 bp cut to 0.75% as it continues to ease policy amid the slowing in growth. However, it will be interesting to see whether RBNZ will signal further easing in contrast with the latest encouraging economic data.
  • Consumer Price Index (GBP, GMT 09:30) – The UK CPI is expected to rebound to a 1.8% y/y rate in October after dipping to 1.7% in September and August from 2.1% in July.
  • Consumer Price Index (USD, GMT 13:30) – A 0.3% October headline CPI rise is anticipated with a 0.2% core price increase, following respective September readings of flat and 0.1%. As-expected gains would result in a headline y/y increase of 1.7% for a third consecutive month, just as core prices rise 2.4% y/y for a third consecutive month. An up-tilt in y/y gains into Q1 of 2020 is expected due to harder comparisons and some lift from tariff increases that should leave gains in the 2.4% area, which may help ease concerns about persistent inflation undershoots of the Fed’s 2% objective.
  • Powell’s 2-day Testimony (USD, GMT 16:00) – Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell testifies before Congress, providing a broad overview of the economy and monetary policy.

Thursday – 14 November 2019

  • Employment Data (AUD, GMT 00:30) – While the unemployment rate is expected to have increase at 5.3% in October, employment change is expected to have stabilized, at 15K compared to 14.7K last month.
  • Retail Sales ex Fuel (GBP, GMT 09:30) – UK Retail Sales are expected to have dipped with a -0.9% ex-auto figure on a m/m basis.
  • Gross Domestic Product (EUR, GMT 13:30) – Eurozone Q3 GDP growth held steady at 0.2% q/q – a better than expected report that highlighted once again that it is a mistake to reduce the Eurozone economy to the German manufacturing sector alone. The same outcome is expected on Thursday as well, at 0.2% q/q for Eurozone preliminary reading.

Friday – 15 November 2019

  • Retail Sales (USD, GMT 14:30) – A 0.4% October gains for both the retail sales headline and the ex-auto figures have been estimated, following a -0.3% September headline dip with a -0.1% ex-auto figure. Gasoline prices should give a boost to retail activity given an estimated 4% increase for the CPI gasoline index. Unit vehicle sales should ease in October with a dip to an estimated 17.0 mln pace from 17.2 mln in September. Real consumer spending is expected to grow at a 2.6% rate in Q4, following the 2.9% Q3 clip.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 13th November 2019.

Trading The Kathy Lien “Waiting For The Deal” & “Fader” Strategies | 12 November 2019 13th November 2019.


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Two intraday techniques that aim to identify opportunities for traders to capture the initial directional intraday real move of the market. According to Kathy Lien, with these strategies you are looking to wait for the noise in the markets to settle down and to trade the real market price action afterward.

In this webinar, you will learn about:
• Timing
• Trading Price Action
• Fading the Move

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst

HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 14th November 2019.

USD holds firm; JPY up; AUD & CAD down 14th November 2019.


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Both the Dollar and Yen have continued to hold firm against most other currencies amid a backdrop of sputtering global stock markets.

AUD: The Australian Dollar dove following the release of Australia’s October employment report, which showed the unemployment rate ticking higher, to 5.3% from 5.2%. China’s industrial production growth also slowed sharply in October, to 4.7% y/y verses the median forecast for 5.4% growth, with investment growth falling to a record low. Chinese sales also underwhelmed, while preliminary Japanese Q3 GDP disappointed with growth of just 0.1% q/q, with a 0.7% q/q drop in exports shining a light on the impact of trade protectionism.

The Australian dollar dove by over 0.5%, driving AUDUSD to a one-month low at 0.6795, and the AUDNZD cross to a 10-week low, at 1.0625, which coincides with the 20-week SMA. The cross has declined by nearly 2% since the RBNZ unexpectedly refrained from cutting interest rates yesterday. A cross today below the 1.0625 could suggest further fall for the medium term, with next Support at the confluence of 50% Fib. and the 200-day SMA, at 1.0560.

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EUR: On a brighter note, German Q3 GDP came in at 0.1% versus the 0.0% median forecast, though Q2 growth was revised lower. The data still helped the Euro lift moderately. EURUSD climbed back above 1.1000 after earlier carving out a fresh one-month low at 1.0994.

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YEN: The Yen remained underpinned by safe-haven positioning, albeit moderate. USDJPY printed a nine-day low at 108.62, while both EURJPY and AUDJPY hit new 1-month lows, with both now amid a fifth consecutive day of decline.

CAD: USDCAD is amid a third consecutive week of ascent, and has remained buoyant after printing a 5-month peak at 1.3268 yesterday. The high extended the pronounced gains the pairing has seen since the release of Canada’s October employment report last Friday, which disappointed and caused a reappraisal in BoC monetary policy expectations. At the same time, USOIL prices have turned flat-to-softer following a 1-month up phase, removing what had been a supportive rug from under the Canadian Dollar’s feet. For now, USDCAD looks likely to remain upwardly biased, with the next Resistance at September’s peak, 1.3310, and at October’s 2 consecutive fractals at 1.3345. Support levels are set at 200-day SMA and 50-day SMA.

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EURCAD: The EURCAD on the other hand, presents a continues slip pf Euro against Loonie. Intraday, the asset forms a triangle since October 25. The support around 1.4554 and 1.4520 is a key gauge that if gives way would open the lows around 1.4420-1.4450. The RSI moving around 50 and MACD lines at neutral suggesting consolidation in the short term. In the medium term meanwhile, the overall outlook remains neutral to positive, while if market holds above 1.4570-1.4580, it would be a confirmation that positive bias is strengthening, with the next daily Resistance area, 1.4670-1.4700.

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Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst

HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 18th November 2019.

Events to Look Out For Next Week 18th November 2019.


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Welcome to our weekly agenda, our briefing on all the key financial events globally. The week ahead is expected to reveal a healthy housing sector in the US, while Canadian data could clear the way for BoC. Eurozone’s PMI are also on tab.

Monday – 18 November 2019

  • ECB Financial Stability Review (EUR, GMT 09:00) – The Financial Stability Review provides an overview of potential risks to financial stability in the Euro Area.

Tuesday – 19 November 2019

  • Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (AUD, GMT 00:30) – The RBA minutes, similar to the ECB Reports, provide a detailed assessment of the bank’s most recent policy-setting meeting, containing in-depth insights into the economic conditions that influenced the rate decision. They are usually a cause for FX turbulence.
  • Housing starts and Building Permits (USD, GMT 13:30) – The September decline in starts reflected weakness in multi-family components, mainly led in the Northeast and Midwest, alongside small declines in the south and west. Permits have shown a solid growth path through Q3 alongside strength in starts, suggesting a likely solid path for both measures through Q4. Housing starts should rebound to a 1.285 mln pace in October, after the dip in September. Permits similarly are expected to rebound to 1.370 mln in October.

Wednesday – 20 November 2019

  • Interest Rate Decision (CNY, GMT 01:30) – The PBoC is not expected to change its interest rates, at 4.2%.
  • Inflation Report Hearings (GBP, GMT N/A) –The BOE Governor and several MPC members testify on inflation and the economic outlook before the Parliament’s Treasury Committee.
  • Consumer Price Index and Core (CAD, GMT 13:30) – The Canadian CPI for October is expected to have come out higher than last month, at 2.1% from 1.9% in September, after the 0.1% dip in August, as declines in gasoline prices and tuition costs weighed. The CPI added to the backing for no change in rates from the BoC in October.
  • Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (USD, GMT 19:00) – The FOMC Minutes report provides the FOMC Members’ opinions regarding the US economic outlook and any views regarding future rate changes.

Thursday – 21 November 2019

  • ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts (EUR, GMT 1:30) –The ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts, similar to the FOMC minutes, provide information with regards to the policymakers’ rationale behind their decisions. In the last ECB meeting, ECB kept policy settings on hold at Draghi’s last meeting, as widely expected after the comprehensive easing package announced in September.
  • Philly Fed Index (USD, GMT 13:30) – The Philly Fed index is seen rising to 7.0 from 5.6 in October, versus a 1-year high of 21.8 in July and a 33-month low of -4.1 in February. The “soft data” measures have largely stabilized since June around moderate levels, though with a headline from the UAW-GM strike in recent months that seemed to have impacted some surveys but not others. The trade war headwind may subside somewhat in November, though the markets still face a wide array of troubles abroad.

Friday – 22 November 2019

  • Gross Domestic Product (EUR, GMT 07:00) – German Q3 GDP expanded 0.1% q/q – boosted by consumption. Germany not just missed a technical recession, the economy actually expanded slightly in the third quarter, as Q2 was revised down. However, we expect no turnaround yet for the final Q3 GDP, despite the higher headline rate, as the balance of risks remains tilted to the downside.
  • Markit Services and Composite PMIs (EUR, GMT 08:30-09:00) – The prelim. EU Markit PMI Indices are expected to continue above 50, but slightly decline to 51.9 and 50.3 respectively, according to consensus expectations. As for Manufacturing PMI, in November a slight improvement is expected at 46.0, even though the headline rate remains in contraction territory.
  • Retail Sales (CAD, GMT 13:30) – Retail Sales are forecasted to have registered a flat outcome in Canada, after mild declines of 0.1% in August.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 20th November 2019.

FX Update – 20th November 2019.


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EURUSD, H1
The Dollar and Yen have firmed up amid a risk-off turn in global markets as tensions between the US and China bubble up. The US Senate yesterday passed a bill in support of Hong Kong’s pro-democracy protesters, to which Beijing responded sharply, accusing Washington of being ignorant of “facts and truths” while threatening retaliation for interfering with what it sees as its internal affairs. This comes with little sign of the long since tabled, and unambitious, “Phase 1” partial trade deal coming to fruition. Sources cited by Reuters report that US President Trump is wanting deeper concessions from China in return for making a full roll back of tariffs and cancelling additional tariffs scheduled to take effect on 15 December.

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Against this backdrop, the Yen has seen its risk premium rise, albeit moderately so. USDJPY ebbed to a six-day low at 108.35, with the Japanese currency outperforming an otherwise firm Dollar. EURJPY posted a six-day low, and other Yen crosses also declined. The narrow trade-weighted USD Index printed a two-day high at 97.93, putting in some distance from the 15-day low seen on Monday at 97.68. EURUSD concurrently saw a two-day low at 1.1055, and Cable a three-day low at 1.2888, with last night’s General Election debate seen as a “draw” but with the Conservatives coming under criticism for misleading the public after it rebranded one of its Twitter accounts to “factcheckUK”.

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Sharp declines in oil prices, where concerns of a supply glut have run into concerns about the US-China situation, have driven underperformance in the Canadian Dollar, lifting USDCAD to a near six-week high at 1.3296. The pair is up nearly 1% from yesterday’s lows. USOil futures have dropped by 4% over the last two days, yesterday posting the biggest one-day tumble in seven weeks and testing $55.00. The Australian and New Zealand Dollars are also lower, though by a lesser extent, and most developing-nation currencies are softer.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst

HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 

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Date : 21st November 2019.

Equities continue lower ahead of ECB – 21st November 2019.


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Equities continue lower ahead of ECB – Stock markets head south on trade deal doubts, while a risk-off, or at least a risk-wary sentiment looks likely to prevail, which could keep safe-haven currencies, primarily the JPY and USD, underpinned, The high beta currencies such as the Dollar bloc and many developing-world currencies are under pressure.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 25th November 2019.

Events to Look Out For Next Week 25th November 2019.

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*Its a short but also busy week, as the Thanksgiving holiday will keep US markets close on Thursday and partially on Friday. From a data perspective, it will definitely be an eventful week with Wednesday and Thursday being the most data-heavy days with US GDP and Durable Goods, and Inflation releases from Europe and Tokyo.

Monday – 25 November 2019

* German IFO Business Climate (EUR, GMT 09:00) – The German business sentiment index released by the CESifo Group is closely watched as an early indicator of current conditions and business expectations in Germany. November numbers are expected to show a decline in business climate.

Tuesday – 26 November 2019

* CB Consumer Confidence (USD, GMT 15:00) – The Consumer confidence is expected to rebound to 128.0 in November from 125.9 in October, versus an 8-month high of 135.8 in July, a 16-month low of 121.7 seen as recently as January, and an 18-year high of 137.9 last October. The present situation index is anticipated to dip to 169.0 from 172.3 in October, versus a 19-year high of 176.0 in August. The expectations index should rise to 100.6 in November from 94.9 in October, versus an 18-year high of 115.1 in October of 2018. Overall, confidence measures remain historically high.

Wednesday – 27 November 2019

* Gross Domestic Product (USD, GMT 13:30) – The Q3 GDP growth is expected to be boosted to 2.1% from 1.9%. The revised Q3 data will still depict a quarter with a wide gap between solid consumption growth but contracting business fixed investment in the face of trade uncertainty, slowing growth abroad, disruptions from the Boeing 737 MAX grounding, and the UAW-GM strike.

* Personal Consumption Expenditures Prices (USD, GMT 13:30) – A 0.3% gain is seen in personal income in October after a 0.3% increase in September, alongside a 0.4% rise in consumption that follows a 0.2% September gain.

* Durable Goods (USD, GMT 13:30) – Durable goods orders are expected to fall -1.5% in October with a -4.4% drop in transportation orders, after a -1.2% headline orders drop in September, and a 0.2% uptick in August. Boeing orders fell to just 10 planes in October from 25 in September. A continued headwind from problems with the Boeing 737 Max and disruptions from the UAW-GM strike have prompted buyers to delay new orders and vehicle assemblies to fall to an 8-year low pace.


Thursday- 28 November 2019

* United States – Thanksgiving Day – US closed.

* Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (EUR, GMT 13:00) – The German HICP inflation could slip to -0.6% m/m for November from 0.1% m/m. The annualized outcome is expected to remain unchanged at 0.9% y/y.

* Tokyo CPI and Production Data (JPY, GMT 23:30) – The country’s main leading indicator of inflation is expected to remain at 0.4% y/y core in November, and to slip at 0.4% y/y ex Fresh Food. Industrial Production should post a 1.9% growth y/y in October, compared to 1.3% last month.

Friday – 29 November 2019

* United States – Thanksgiving Day – US early closed at 13:00.

* Unemployment Rate (EUR, GMT 08:55) – Unemployment numbers are probably nearly as important as the GDP growth figure. German unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged in the annual basis however unemployment change for November is expected to decline to 2K from 6K.

* Consumer Price Index (EUR, GMT 10:00) – The Euro Area flash CPI for November is forecasted to rise slightly, at 0.9% y/y from 0.7% y/y last month while core is seen at 1.2% y/y from 1.1% y/y.

* Gross Domestic Product (CAD, GMT 13:30) – A sharp slowing in Canada’s real GDP growth rate to 1.2% (q/q, saar) is expected in Q3 following the surge in Q2 growth to a 3.7% clip that was driven by temporary factors. This will add to the backing for a near term rate cut for the Bank of Canada.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 26th November 2019.

Equities continue lower ahead of ECB – 26th November 2019.


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Risk-on runs on – European stock markets are slightly lower in opening trade, as the stock markets run out of steam after the rally seen yesterday.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 2nd December 2019.

Events to Look Out For Next Week 2nd December 2019.


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Welcome to our weekly agenda, our briefing of all the key financial events globally. Following another cautious week, after trade jitters and the prospect of further protests in Hong Kong weighed on sentiment, two interest rate decisions and NFP data stand out in the announcement schedule next week. The US-China trade tensions, upcoming UK elections and OPEC meeting in Vienna continue to dominate the week.

Monday – 02 December 2019

  • Building Permits (AUD, GMT 00:30) – Building permits are a known leading indicator of the housing and the overall market. Following the moderatıon of decline in dwelling approvals in September for Australia, it will be interesting to observe whether permits will increase or pullback once again. The consensus for October is at -4.0% m/m, compared to the spike at 7.6% last month.
  • Manufacturing PMIs (EUR, GBP, USD, GMT 08:55-14:45) – The UK manufacturing PMI is expected to hold below neutral at 48.1. The Euro Area PMI is expected to remain at the same levels as last month, at 46.6 and German number at 43.8, while the US ISM PMI in November is expected to increase to 50.5 compared to 48.3. The sentiment surveys have been erratic in recent months likely due to competing perspectives on the trade war, troubles abroad, and stock price gyrations.

Tuesday – 03 December 2019

  • Interest Rate Decision (AUD, GMT 03:30) – No surprises are expected even though in the last RBA statement Governor Lowe admitted that there are downside risks and admitted that the bank could ease again if necessary. He also suggested that previous easing steps are already supporting the economy and while the bank is monitoring developments there was nothing to signal immediate moves.

Wednesday – 04 December 2019

  • Gross Domestic Product (AUD, GMT 00:30) – Third quarter GDP for Australia is expected to have settled at 1.4% y/y.
  • Employment Data (USD, GMT 13:15) – US ADP Employment Change is anticipated to grow by 138K in November from 125K last month.
  • ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 15:00) – The ISM-NMI index is expected to rise to 55.0 in November from 54.7 in October. Sentiment has received ongoing support, however, from tight labor markets, high consumer confidence levels, and firm GDP and consumption growth. We should see at least some November updraft following the settlement of the UAW-GM strike.
  • Interest Rate Decision (CAD, GMT 15:00) – In October, the Bank of Canada maintained the 1.75% rate setting, matching widespread expectations. However, the announcement was overall dovish and the Bank seems like it has opened the door wide open to a rate cut if the resilience of the domestic economy shows signs of faltering.

Thursday – 05 December 2019

  • OPEC meeting in Vienna
  • Gross Domestic Product (EUR, GMT 10:00) – Third quarter GDP s.a. for Europe is expected to have settled at 0.2% q/q, unchanged from the second quarter.
  • Trade balance (USD, GMT 13:30) – The trade deficit is expected to widen in October to -$53.5 bln from -$52.5 bln in September. The exports are anticipated to hold steady at $206.0 bln, while imports should rise 0.4% to $259.6 bln. Both exports and imports face headwinds from a decline in vehicle trade with the UAW-GM strike, as well as a drop in petroleum prices following the Saudi drone bombing in September.

Friday – 06 December 2019

  • Event of the Week – Non-Farm Payrolls (USD, GMT 13:30) – A 190k November nonfarm payroll rise has been forecasted, following a 128k increase in October. This reflects a November reversal of the UAW-GM strike impact that left a restrained 128k October rise, with an estimated 40k November bounce in factory jobs after the -36k October drop.
  • Labour Market Data (CAD, GMT 13:30) – October employment revealed a 1.8k drop in jobs, contrary to expectations for a measured gain (median 15k), following the 53.7k jump in September. However, the November reading is anticipated to jump back to 15.9K while the unemployment rate is expected to rise as well at 5.6% m/m from 5.5% last month.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 3rd December 2019.

Sterling Awaits Election Result – 3rd December 2019.


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Sunderland South and the direction of Sterling – Why the first constituency to declare its new MP could have a significant bearing on the direction of Sterling on Election night next week.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 4th December 2019.

FX Update – December 4 – Risk Off – 4th December 2019.


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AUDJPY, H1
The Yen has rallied on a safe-haven bid as global stock markets turn lower after President Trump, nearly two months after announcing the limited “Phase 1” trade deal with China, said that trade negotiations may be postponed until after the 2020 presidential election. This after announcing intentions to tariff steel imports from Brazil and Argentina. Disappointing Q3 GDP out of Australia, a country that is highly exposed to the US-China trade, was also in the mix. Growth came in at 0.4% q/q in the antipodean economy, against a median of 0.5%. USDJPY printed a 13-day low at 108.43, while EURJPY and AUDJPY descended into respective one-week low territory and is the biggest moving pair today, down some -0.6%. The Australian Dollar has been the day’s biggest loser out of the main currencies. AUDUSD more than reversed gains seen yesterday on the less dovish than expected RBA statement, in making a low of 0.6814. The AUDJPY triggered lower yesterday on the Crossing EMA Strategy, H1 at 13:00 GMT (1) move down to T1 (2), retraced to Entry (3) to close T2 flat. It then triggered lower again (4) and moved to T1 (5) and T2 (6) for a net move of 47 pips for both legs lower.

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The Dollar, outside the case of USDJPY, has held firm, finding its own safe haven bid. The sharpest in six months drop in the U.S. 10-year T-note yield yesterday was a reflection of this safe haven bid, which is why forex markets haven’t been trading on yield differential dynamics in the latest phase. Both EURUSD and Cable both drifted moderately lower, before a bid on Sterling saw cable breach 1.3000 and trade over 1.3040 and post a new six month high. Elsewhere, EURCHF has dropped for a third consecutive trading day, this time hitting a three-week low at 1.0923. The decline in the cross have correlated with the prevailing risk-off phase that started at Friday’s release of disappointing U.S. manufacturing ISM data.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 6th December 2019.

Happy Non-Farm Friday – 6th December 2019.


[IMG]

Happy Non-Farm Friday – The Dollar majors have remained comfortably within their respective ranges from yesterday, ahead of trade talks, NFP and the OPEC+ decision.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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বিডিপিপস কি এবং কেন?

বিডিপিপস বাংলাদেশের সর্বপ্রথম অনলাইন ফরেক্স কমিউনিটি এবং বাংলা ফরেক্স স্কুল। প্রথমেই বলে রাখা জরুরি, বিডিপিপস কাউকে ফরেক্স ট্রেডিংয়ে অনুপ্রাণিত করে না। যারা বর্তমানে ফরেক্স ট্রেডিং করছেন, শুধুমাত্র তাদের জন্যই বিডিপিপস একটি আলোচনা এবং অ্যানালাইসিস পোর্টাল। ফরেক্স ট্রেডিং একটি ব্যবসা এবং উচ্চ লিভারেজ নিয়ে ট্রেড করলে তাতে যথেষ্ট ঝুকি রয়েছে। যারা ফরেক্স ট্রেডিংয়ের যাবতীয় ঝুকি সম্পর্কে সচেতন এবং বর্তমানে ফরেক্স ট্রেডিং করছেন, বিডিপিপস শুধুমাত্র তাদের ফরেক্স শেখা এবং উন্নত ট্রেডিংয়ের জন্য সহযোগিতা প্রদান করার চেষ্টা করে।

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