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  1. Market Analysis and News.

    Date : 18th February 2020. UK Week Ahead - 18th February The data calendar this week is quite busy, featuring, in chronological order, monthly labour market data today, January inflation figures (Wednesday), January retails sales (Thursday), and the preliminary January PMI surveys (Friday). The UK employment is anticipated to hold steady at 3.8% in December data, though the average household income to dip to a 3.1% y/y rate in the three months to December. The headline CPI has forecasted to remain unchanged at 1.3% y/y rate, which is well off the BoE’s 2.0% target, though would fit the central bank’s projections. A 0.6% m/m rebound in retail sales is expected following the 0.6% contraction in December. As for the preliminary PMI data, the market consensus if for a dip in the headline composite reading, to 52.7 from 53.3, with service sector expansion seen slowing after the acceleration in January, and manufacturing sector activity dipping back into mild contraction. Overall, the as-expected data will affirm a picture of a post-election rebound in activity. This, combined with markets anticipating a fiscally expansive 2020-21 budget presentation from the government in March, should keep the pound underpinned. The impact of the coronavirus hasn’t, by anecdotal measures, been much as yet. On the Brexit front, concerns persist. The government has clearly signalled that it aims for divergence from the EU, and leave, without a new trading agreement if necessary, the Brexit transition period at the end of the year. This would imply the UK shifting to WTO trading terms and conditions, which would erode terms of trade. Bear in mind that when the UK leaves transition phase, it won’t just be leaving the EU’s single market and customs union, but also the 40 free trade agreement that the Union has around the globe. In currency market meanwhile, Cable has continued to consolidate gains seen mid last week following signs that the government is gearing up a fiscally expansive policy. The pair has pullback to 1.3000 area, off from the two-week high of last Thursday at 1.3069. On the year-to-date, and from the mid-December election, the Pound has been trading mixed versus the other main currencies, lacking domestically generated directional bias. Political developments have seen UK Prime Minister Johnson strengthen his power, most notably with last week’s resignation of Chancellor of the Exchequer Sajid Javid, who was replaced by Rishi Sunak, which effectively green lights a fiscally expansive policy to finance major infrastructure projects (details are due to be announced at the government’s 2020-21 budget presentation in March). Available January data out of the UK have also confirmed a rebound in economic activity as the fog of political uncertainty cleared following the general election. On the negative side of the balance are persisting concerns about Brexit. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
  2. Date : 23rd August 2018. MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 23rd August 2018. FX News Today FX Update: The Dollar has lifted after five straight down sessions. The USD index (DXY) is showing a 0.3% gain heading into the London open, at 95.41, rising above yesterday’s high but remains well below the 14-month high seen last week at 96.98. EURUSD has concurrently sunk to a two-day low of 1.1542, putting in some distance from yesterday’s two-week peak at 1.1623. USDJPY has also been on the up, printing an eight-day high of 110.93, and extending the rebound from Monday’s eight-week low at 109.77. Wall Street finished moderately yesterday, and US500 futures are presently flat, while US Treasury yields are lower. Fed funds futures are showing 50-50 odds for a 25 bp hike in December. There is conjecture among Fed watchers that Chairman Powell will retain a hawkish tone in his keynote speech on Friday, despite President Trump’s calls for looser policy. Elsewhere, the Australian Dollar has taken a tumble amid political turmoil regarding leadership challenges faced by Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull. AUDUSD has lost over 0.7% in falling to six-day lows under 0.7300. FOMC minutes: The most important point in the minutes was that “many participants” believed another hike would be appropriate “soon”, which could be interpreted as an indication for a September tightening. Participants noted that the funds rate was moving closer to the range of estimate of a neutral level, with a number of participants emphasizing uncertainty in estimates of that level, and agreeing that “accommodative” language may no longer be appropriate fairly soon. Participants generally noted the strength of the economy in Q2, as well as favorable factors that were supporting above-trend growth, including financial conditions. But “several” stressed that transitory factors may have played a role, including an outsized increase in exports. All officials viewed trade as an “important source of uncertainty.” There was some discussion regarding firms having greater scope to increase prices due to strong demand or rising input costs. There was also talk over the implications of the flattening yield curve. The minutes indicated that balance sheet discussions would continue in the fall. Asian Market Wrap: 10-year Treasury yields are down -0.5 bp at 2.813% and 10-year JGBs fell back -0.2 bp to 0.083% amid a wider decline in Asian rates. Australian bonds outperformed as the ASX declined and AUD weakened as Prime Minister Turnbill faces leadership challenges. Elsewhere, stock markets traded mostly mixed, with mainland China and Hang Seng underperforming. Topix and Nikkei posted marginal gains of 0.02% and 0.18%, while Hang Seng and CSI were down -0.83% and -0.59% respectively as of 05:18GMT. The additional US and China tariffs come into effect in the middle of ongoing trade talks and China said it will lodge a complaint with the WTO. US stock futures are heading south after a mixed close yesterday and with the Fed minutes confirming that further rate hikes remain on the cards, but also showing some concern about the impact of possible prolonged trade battles. Markets are also looking ahead to the Jackson Hole meeting amid political risks for Trump from the legal battles of his former advisors. Charts of the Day Main Macro Events Today Jackson Hole Symposium – The annual Jackson Hole Symposium is hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City and is a forum for the top central bankers, policy experts and academics of the world who come together to discuss policy issues. Comments and speeches from central bankers and other influential officials can create significant market volatility. This year’s topic relates to the changing market structure and its implications for monetary policy. Most awaited speech is by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts – The accounts, similar to the FOMC minutes, aim to provide an overview of financial, economic and monetary developments aimed to provide the rationale behind policy decisions. Currency response depends on the accounts’ content. US Jobless Claims – Consensus forecasts expect that claims will increase slightly compared to last week. New Zealand Trade Balance – Trade balance expected to deteriorate in July, registering a $0.5bln decline. Japan Consumer Price Index – CPI expected to decline and stand at about 0.4% YoY, compared to 0.7% last month. Support and Resistance Levels Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Dr Nektarios Michail Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
  3. Market Analysis and News.

    Date : 17th February 2020 Events to Look Out For Next Week 17th February 2020. *Uncertainties over the extent of the economic damage from the novel coronavirus (Covid-19) will keep the markets on shaky footing near term. Elsewhere, focus will be on Europe following Germany’s economic stagnation in Q4 last year as seen today. Looking ahead, ZEW exports and manufacturing remain in the spotlight. That said, further contraction on these leaves the risk that the labour market will start to suffer. The balance of risks is clearly tilted to the downside, and not just for Germany’s economy. Monday – 17 February 2020 * Eurogroup Meeting * US Bank Holiday – US banks will be closed in observance of Presidents’ Day – NYSE, Nasdaq and Bond markets are all fully closed. Tuesday – 18 February 2020 * RBA Minutes (AUD, GMT 00:30) – The RBA minutes will provide more insight on the views the Australian Central Bank has about the economy. * Average Earnings and Unemployment (GBP, GMT 09:30) – Earnings are expected to have slowed by 3.1% in the last quarter of 2019, while the ILO Unemployment Rate for the 3 months to December is seen steady at 3.8%. * ZEW Economic Sentiment (EUR, GMT 10:00) – German Economic Sentiment for February is projected at 15.0 from the 26.7 seen last month, as the current conditions indicator for Germany declines further. The overall Eurozone reading though is expected to rise to 30.0 from 25.6. * Trade Balance (JPY, GMT 23:50) – Japanese imports should decrease -15.8% y/y in January, compared to -4.9% in December, in expectation of lower domestic consumption. Overall, the trade balance is expected to have worsened in January. Wednesday – 19 February 2020 * Consumer Price Index (GBP, GMT 09:30) – Prices are expected to have eased in January, with overall inflation expected to stand unchanged at 1.3% y/y, and core at 1.5% from 1.4% y/y last month. * Consumer Price Index (CAD, GMT 13:30) – Prices are expected to have improved to 0.1% in January following a flat CPI in December. The overall inflation should have expanded in January to a 2.2% y/y, matching December’s reading. * FOMC Minutes (USD, GMT 19:00) – The FOMC minutes will provide more insight on the views the FED has about the economy. Thursday- 20 February 2020 * Employment Data (AUD, GMT 00:30) – Employment change s.a. is expected to have increased by 31K in Australia in January, compared to 28.9K in December. The unemployment rate is expected to have increased to 5.2%. * Retail Sales (GBP, GMT 09:30) – Following the unexpected 0.6% m/m contraction in UK retail sales in December, Retail Sales are expected to grow by 0.6% in January. * ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts (EUR, GMT 12:30) –The ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts, similar to the FOMC minutes, provide information with regard to the policymakers’ rationale behind their decisions. * National CPI Index (JPY, GMT 23:30) – The Japanese price index should fall to 0.7% on a y/y basis, compared to 0.8% in December. Friday – 21 February 2020 * EU PMIs (EUR, GMT 09:00) – Both manufacturing and services February PMIs are expected to have dropped, leaving the composite at 51.0, down from 51.3 in the preliminary release for February. In Germany meanwhile, composite PMI should slow to 50.7 from 51.2. * UK Service PMI (GBP, GMT 09:30) – The final services PMI for January was unexpectedly revised up, to 53.9 from 52.9 in the preliminary estimate, and the highest level in 16 months. * Consumer Price Index (EUR, GMT 10:00) – CPI inflation is forecasted to hold at 1.4% y/y as seen in January. * Retail Sales (CAD, GMT 13:30) – Core Canadian sales are anticipated to have risen by 0.4% m/m in December, compared to 0.2% m/m in November. * US PMIs (USD, GMT 14:45) – The Manufacturing PMI is expected to have increased to 52.5 in February, compared to 51.9 in January, while the Services PMI is expected to have slowed to 52.9. * Existing Home Sales (USD, GMT 14:45) – We expect a 0.4% rise in existing home sales in January to a 5.560 mln pace, after a rise to 5.540 mln in December. Pending home sales have grown substantially since Q4 of 2018, though we saw a big -4.9% pull-back in December. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
  4. Market Analysis and News.

    Date : 14th February 2020. FX Update – EUR Pressure continues - 14th February EURUSD, H1 / Weekly Germany’s economy stagnated in Q4 last year, in line with a number of forecasts and a tad below consensus expectations, which had predicted a slight expansion of 0.1% q/q. Compared to negative quarterly prints in France and Italy, Germany is already the outperformer among the three big Eurozone countries and Q3 numbers for Germany were revised up to 0.2% from 0.1% reported initially. This left the working day adjusted annual rate 0.4% y/y a tad higher than anticipated, but down from 1.1% y/y in Q3. There is no full breakdown yet, but the stats office reported that private as well as public consumption slowed in the last quarter of 2019, while investment was mixed with construction investment, expanding again. Exports contracted, while imports picked up according to first estimate. Looking ahead, exports are likely to continue to suffer and orders numbers are predicting another weak quarter for manufacturing, which leaves the risk that the labour market will start to suffer. The balance of risks clearly is tilted to the downside not just for Germany’s economy. The Euro posted fresh lows against the Dollar and other currencies, while both the safe haven Yen and Swiss franc lost yesterday’s bid as the daily increment of new coronavirus cases in China fell back alongside narratives that are downplaying yesterday’s jump in total reported cases in Hubei province as being just a reclassification. EURUSD posted a fresh 34-month low at 1.08265, and is set for its biggest two-week loss since July 2019. Today, the German GDP helped lift it to 1.0840 with the broader GDP data for the wider Eurozone yet to come. EURJPY printed a four-month low, at 118.86, and EURCHF a near-five-year-low, at 1.0609. EURGBP yesterday saw a two-month low below at 0.8295. Elsewhere, USDJPY settled in the upper 109.00s, above the four-day low seen yesterday at 109.61. Cable consolidated gains seen yesterday, holding just shy of the nine-day high at 1.3069. The EURUSD low earlier tested the S2 and 161.8 Fibonacci extension low of the December rally at 1.0820, below there is the daily lower channel at 1.0750. In the the longer term the 161.8 Fibonacci extension level from the Q419 rally is at 1.0650 and then the psychological 1.0500. The Q419, against the trend, re-trace rally came from this over extension from the 200-day moving average which is where we are now, so some retrace to possibly the 1.1050-75 zone could be expected. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
  5. Market Analysis and News.

    Date : 12th February 2020. FX Update – A weaker Yen & Stronger Kiwi today - 12th February USDJPY, H1. The Yen remained soft while the Dollar bloc currencies extended recent gains as risk appetite in global markets held up, with a reported dip in new coronavirus (now Covid-19)cases in China being tonic for investors. Wall Street yesterday saw fresh record highs, while the MSCI Asia-Pacific equity index rose by another 1% today. USDJPY lifted through 110.00 to 110.13 and above Tuesday’s high at 109.96. AUDJPY, now in its third consecutive day of ascent, carved out a five-day high at 74.23 , stalling at R2. AUDUSD and NZDUSD lifted to respective a six-day highs, at 0.6737 and 0.6476, while USDCAD fell to a six-day low at 1.3272. The RBNZ left policy on hold following a board meeting today, and also removed guidance for more rate cuts, saying that only a longer than currently anticipated impact from the Covid-19 outbreak would warrant any further easing. New Zealand also has an election this November. Governor Orr is due to testify later today (19:10 GMT) on today’s MPC statement before Finance and Expenditure Select Committee. Elsewhere, EURUSD looks to have found a footing after a run of seven consecutive down days, steadying so far today around 1.0900-1.0925, above the four-month low that was printed at 1.0891. Cable edged out a six-day high at 1.2969, surpassing yesterday’s high by a pip, while EURGBP ebbed to a nine-day low at 0.8413. The Pound is amid a phase of modest outperformance, with available January data out of the UK have shown a rebound in economic activity as the fog of political uncertainty cleared following the December general election, while Prime Minister Johnson announcing big plans for infrastructure projects. These have helped quell, for now, concerns about Brexit and divergence from the EU. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
  6. Market Analysis and News.

    Date : 11th February 2020. Macro News & Events February 11 | 11th February 2020. FX News Today – Another record close for Stocks – EUR at 4 mth low, AUD recovers from 10 yr lows – nCoV – over 1,000 deaths and 43k infections – Overnight China offers more stimulus, more reports GDP cud be down over 1% 2020 – Powell, Lagarde & Carney ALL scheduled to speak to later. Today UK GDP, Ind. Production & Trade Balance, EU Growth Forecasts, JOLTS reports – PLUS – Powell, Lagarde and Carney all testify today – plus back up speeches from Haskel (BOE) and Kashkari & Quarles (FED). Biggest (FX) Move overnight @ (07:00 GMT) AUDJPY (+0.53%) –Rallied from 73.20 lows yesterday, breaching 20hr MA & PP (73.35) at (23:00). Over 200hr MA (73.65) & R1 (73.70) by (05:00). MA’s and RSI both supportive, Stochastics overbought zone from 12:00 – topped at 95. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
  7. Market Analysis and News.

    Date : 06th February 2020. US Services PMIs also revised higher - 06th February USDIndex, Daily The January ISM non-manufacturing PMI was revised higher to 55.5 from 55.1, the December figure sat at 54.9. The components were mixed. The employment sub-index dipped to 53.1 from 54.8 previously (revised from 55.2). New orders improved to 56.2 versus 55.3 (revised from 54.9), though new export orders slipped -0.9 ticks to 50.1. Imports jumped 7.1 points to 55.1. And prices paid fell to 55.5 from from 59.3 (revised from 58.5). Although the headline is below data from 2017 through most of 2019, this a solid report for the economy. US Markit services PMI was also revised up to 53.4 in the final January print versus the 53.2 preliminary. And it’s up from the 52.8 in December. It was at 54.2 a year ago. It’s the highest since March. The employment component rose to 51.8 from 51.7 in December and is the third straight month of expansion. Prices charged declined. The composite was nudged up to 53.3 from the 53.1 preliminary, and is up from December’s 52.7. It was at 54.4 last January, and also is the best since March. Input prices increased to 52.6 versus December’s 52.5, a fourth straight monthly gain, and are the highest since June. The data continue to show resilience to the nCoV scare. The PMI data lifted the Greenback and its recovery during January continues into February. The USDIndex is over 98.00 for the time since in the 45 trading days since December 3. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
  8. Market Analysis and News.

    Date : 05th February 2020. Understanding Market Basics I - 05th February In this 90 minutes podcast, especially designed for NEW and inexperienced traders, Andria will outline the Market Basics including Supply & Demand, Fundamental & Technical analysis including some basic charts and market cycles: • Basic Supply & Demand • How Fundamental and Technical Analysis differ • Price Charts, Market Cycles, Trends and Consolidations Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
  9. Market Analysis and News.

    Date : 04th February 2020. US Open and US ISM manufacturing US Open and US ISM manufacturing – US ISM manufacturing index bounced 3.1 points to 50.9 in January, much better than expected. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
  10. Market Analysis and News.

    Date : 3rd February 2020 Events to Look Out For Next Week. Chinese markets reopen next week following a global sell-off coupled with escalating disruptions caused by the coronavirus. The spread of the coronavirus is expected to continue dominating the market as it is starting to pose yet another risk to the global economy. Along with monitoring the virus, in the week ahead traders will look to more earnings out of the US, along with the US Jobs Report and RBA rate decision. Monday – 03 February 2020 Caixin Manufacturing PMI (CNY, GMT 01:45) – The Caixin Manufacturing PMI is expected to hold close to neutral, at 51.5 for January. Manufacturing PMI (EUR, GMT 01:45) – The German Manufacturing PMI is likely to once again confirm a recession in the manufacturing sector, at 45.2 for January. ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 15:00) – The ISM Index is expected to tick up to 47.5 in January from 47.2 in December, compared to a 14-year high of 60.8 in August of ’18. Tuesday – 04 February 2020 Interest Rate Decision (AUD, GMT 03:30) – No surprises are expected in the RBA’s interest rate decision, while its statement should provide important insights regarding the future of the Australian economy. Market positioning in Australian cash rate futures implies a 19% probability for a 25 bp rate cut, down from the 58% odds being given before the release of an unexpectedly solid employment report out of Australia. Labour Market Data (NZD, GMT 21:45) – The final reading for Q4 employment change is expected to show few positive labor reports. The unemployment rate is anticipated at 3.8% from 4.2%, while participation rate is seen rising at 71.1%. Wednesday – 05 February 2020 RBA’s Governor Lowe speech (AUD, GMT 01:30) ADP Employment Change (USD, GMT 13:15) – Employment change is seen drifting to 155k in the number of employed people in January, compared to the 202k reading seen last month. Trade Balance (USD, GMT 13:30) – The trade deficit is expected to widen in December to -$49.7 bln from -$43.1 bln in November. The exports are expected to rise 0.3% to $209.3 bln, and imports to rebound by 2.9% to $259.1 bln. A rebound is expected for both oil import prices and volume that prompt a $3 bln petroleum import bounce, and also for most other commodity components as well, following outsized November declines. Imports from China have sharply undershot the usual seasonal pattern since July, with a particularly big hit in October and November. Tariff front running in late-2018 and early-2019 is now being unwound, though we expect some give-back for this pattern in December. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 15:00) – The ISM-NMI Index is expected to rise to 55.1 in January from 55.0 in December and a recent low of 52.6 in September, versus a 13-year high of 60.8 in September of 2018. Thursday – 06 February 2020 RBA’s Governor Lowe speech (AUD, GMT 01:30) European Commission releases Economic Growth Forecasts (EUR, GMT 10:00) Friday – 07 February 2020 NFP and Labour Market Data (USD, GMT 13:30) – A 50k January Nonfarm payroll rise is seen, following a 145k increase in December. The jobless rate should hold steady at 3.5% for a third month and average hourly earnings should rise 0.3% m/m, for a y/y gain of 3.0%. We will get the annual revisions for the establishment survey with the January report, and guidance suggests a -501k revision in the March 2019 payroll level that implies -42k reductions per month, on average, for the twelve months ending last March. Labour Market Data (CAD, GMT 13:30) – Canada’s employment rebounded 35.2k in December after the 71.2k plunge in November. The unemployment rate fell to 5.6% from 5.9%, undershooting projections for an incremental dip to 5.8%. The participation rate dipped to 65.5% from 65.6%. For January, the unemployment rate is expected to rise at 5.8% while participation rate should remain unchanged. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
  11. Market Analysis and News.

    Date : 30th January 2020. EURUSD & FOMC Preview EURUSD, H1 EURUSD edged out a fresh two-month low at 1.0994, racking up today as the sixth consecutive trading day where a lower low has been seen. The new low is the culmination of a moderate downtrend that’s been unfolding over the last couple of weeks, from levels above 1.1150. The Dollar has been outperforming the common currency in the context of rising risk aversion in global markets, while ECB policymakers have been signalling that accommodative monetary policy will remain in place for the foreseeable future given economic risks. ECB’s Rehn said earlier that the monetary arsenal hasn’t been exhausted yet. The Dollar, meanwhile, is currently registering as the strongest of the main currencies on the year-to-date, reflecting international demand for Treasuries (the Dollar is up by 3.9% versus the Aussie dollar, which is the weakest, closely followed by the Kiwi dollar (3.0%) and is showing a near 0.5% gain on the Yen, which is the second strongest). In the bigger picture, the EURUSD has been trending lower since early 2018, dropping from levels near 1.2500 and posting a 32-month low at 1.0879 in early October, the current nadir of the trend. Momentum has faded, however, with the Fed having backed out of its tightening phase after hiking rates three times last year. The central bank has since been engaged in capping the repo rate, which has seen its balance swell by some 11% since last September, and Fed funds futures are discounting about 72% odds for a 25 bp easing at the last FOMC meeting of the year in December, after the US Presidential election (which the markets are assuming will see Mr. Trump back in the White House). The FOMC will issue its post-meeting statement at 19:00 GMT later today. There is no reason to expect a change in the fed funds target range of 1.50%-1.75%. Data released since the December meeting did little to change the Fed’s commitment to a policy pause until we see a “material change” in the outlook. The statement and press conference will be monitored closely for any remaining tilt in the Fed’s policy toward easing. Expectations are that the Fed will refrain from signaling further action, either in the statement or the ensuing (19:30) press conference. As ever, nuances and inferences from Jay Powell will be closely followed by market participants, commentators and of course, President Trump. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
  12. Market Analysis and News.

    Date : 28th January 2020. New Homes Sales add to the woes 28th January 2020. USA30, H1 US new home sales dipped -0.4% in December to a 694k pace, after November’s revised -1.1% drop to 697k (was 719k). October was bumped down to 705k, versus 710k. This is the lowest since July. Sales were at a 564k rate last December. Regionally, sales declined in the Northeast and South, and rose in the Midwest and West. The month’s supply of homes rose to 5.7 from 5.5 (revised from 5.4). The median sales prices increased 3.3% to $331,400 after November’s -0.8% slide to $320,900 (revised from $330,800). That’s a +0.5% y/y clip versus 4.0% y/y in November (revised from 7.2% y/y). The drop in sales and downward revisions are a disappointment. Housing was a significant plus point for the US economy in 2019. US equities are sharply lower, following on the heels of the plunge in stocks globally on heightened worries over the spreading coronavrius and concern about slowing global economic growth. The USA100 trades 1.76% lower at 9150, the USA500 is 1.41% lower at 3249 with the USA30 is down over 400 points (1.4%) at 28,586, from the breach of the 200-period moving average on Fridays close. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
  13. Market Analysis and News.

    Date : 27th January 2020 Events to Look Out For Next Week 27th January 2020. Brexit Day has officially arrived, however BoE and FOMC take the centre stage next week. Meanwhile, the world’s attention has turned to the coronavirus and how well it will be contained. Note that markets in China, South Korea, and Taiwan were closed for Lunar New Year holidays, with the former two now closed through to the end of next week. Monday – 27 January 2020 German IFO (EUR, GMT 09:00) – The German Business Sentiment Index released by the CESifo Group is closely watched as an early indicator of current conditions and business expectations in Germany. January’s numbers are expected to decline. Tuesday – 28 January 2020 Durable Goods (USD, GMT 13:30) – Durable Goods is the leading indicator of production in the US. December’s Durable goods orders are expected to rise 2.0% with a 6.0% bounce in transportation orders, after a -2.1% headline orders decrease in November that was hit with a -5.9% transportation orders decline. Boeing orders for planes plunged to 3 after bouncing to 63 in November thanks to a boost from the Dubai Air Show. Chicago Board Consumer Confidence Index (USD, GMT 15:00) – The Chicago Board Index is expected to have increased from 126.5 in December to 127.2 in January. Wednesday – 29 January 2020 Consumer Price Index (AUD, GMT 00:30) – Inflation is expected to have unchanged close to 1.7% y/y, after flattered to 0.5% in Q4. Interest Rate Decision and Conference (USD, GMT 19:00) – No change is expected at the Fed meeting, with the Fed having backed out of its tightening phase after cutting rates three times last year. However, guidance regarding future rate movements is expected. Thursday – 30 January 2020 Interest Rate Decision and conference (GBP, GMT 12:00) – The BoE is expected to remain on hold, especially after the UK Jan flash composite PMI smashed expectations today. Positioning in OIS markets now implies a 47% probability for the BoE trimming the repo rate by 25 bp at the January-30th MPC meeting next week, so markets are still anticipating easier monetary policy, albeit to a lesser extent than recently. Policymakers will still be looking to see the full impact that the lifting of Brexit and political fog has since the election in mid December, especially with the global economy looking to be holding up. Gross Domestic Product (USD, GMT 13:30) – A Q4 GDP growth of 2.4% is expected with a huge $67 bln surge in net exports due to a big import plunge, but a similarly huge but nearly offsetting -$53 bln Q4 inventory subtraction that leaves an accumulation rate of just $17 bln. Tokyo Core CPI (JPY, GMT 23:30) – Tokyo CPI is usually a good proxy for the Japanese economy’s overall inflation rate. In January, the CPI ex Food is expected to have stood at 0.6% y/y, lower than December, even though projections may be revised when Retail Sales are taken into consideration. Retail Sales (JPY, GMT 23:50) – Following a precipitous 2-month dive in October and November, due to a prolonged hit to exports from soft global demand and a slide in consumer spending following a nationwide tax hike, December’s Retail Sales are expected to climb slightly to 0.7% on a y/y basis. Friday – 31 January 2020 Brexit Deadline Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
  14. Market Analysis and News.

    Date : 24th January 2020. PMIs in focus – EUR, GBP & USD 24th January 2020. PMI data from Europe, UK and USA will be the main drivers for the FX market today. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
  15. Market Analysis and News.

    Date : 23rd January 2020. How To Improve Your Trading Mindset 23rd January 2020. Our Head Market Analyst, Stuart, explains how to improve your Trading Mindset. Understand the importance of emotional control and discipline through an unmissable Q&A session. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
  16. Market Analysis and News.

    Date : 21st January 2020. FX Update – US Closed & USD Softer 21st January 2020. EURUSD, H1 The Dollar has seen modest weakness in quiet early-week trading. Volumes are likely to remain on the low side today with US markets closed for the Martin Luther King holiday. Stock markets in Asia remained buoyant after bellwether indices in the US and Europe hit record highs (again) on Friday. Mostly upbeat earnings, reduced trade uncertainty and, more fundamentally, accommodative central banks (the Fed’s capping of repo rates is of particular note, which has swelled its balance sheet by 11% since last September) along with a persisting benign inflationary picture, have been maintaining the bull run on global stock markets. EURUSD steadied after dropping over the last two days of last week, which left a 10-day low at 1.1085. Earlier, German PPI inflation ended 2019 at -0.2% y/y, up from -0.7% y/y in November and in fact a tad higher than anticipated. However, the uptick was mainly due to the fact that negative base effects from energy prices fell out of the equation, which was already evident in HICP readings and thus the PPI number doesn’t change the overall outlook. Inflation remains too low for the ECB’s liking and both the definition of the benchmark inflation rate and the target itself are set to the part of the ECB’s strategic policy overhaul that is set to start in earnest this week. EURUSD is once again testing the 1.1085 and the key 61.8 Fibonacci level at 1.1079, and S1 sits at 1.1070 and the December/November low 1.0980. USDJPY went into narrow-range mode, posting just less than a 15-pip range in Asia through to the open of the London interbank market. Cable edged out a five-day low at 1.2985, and EURGBP lifted above its Friday peak in making a high at 0.8456. The possibility of the BoE cutting rates at its MPC meeting this Thursday should keep the Pound under pressure. The UK finance minister remarked over the weekend to the Financial Times that the UK would not be a “ruletaker” after Brexit, urging businesses to “adjust”. This has been taken negatively by businesses and has also weighed on Sterling today. USDCAD ebbed fractionally lower, to a 1.3055 low, which is near the midway point of the range seen over the last week. Oil prices rallied at the opening of trading today, which sent front-month USOil to an 11-day high at $59.66. Reports that two large production sites in Libya closed in the face of military blockades (the country is amid a long-running civil war) underpinned prices. This was ahead of the Libya Conference in Paris at the weekend and seen as muscle flexing by the main opposition group. Elsewhere, AUDUSD recouped nearly half of the decline seen on Friday in carving out a high at 0.6888. The Aussie Dollar on Friday printed a 10-day low at 0.6871. RBA money markets positioning has continued to imply a 56% probability for the RBA trimming the cash rate by 25 bp at its February-4 policy meeting, unchanged since last Thursday. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
  17. Market Analysis and News.

    Date : 20th January 2020. Events to Look Out For Next Week 20th January 2020. *An important week is coming up with regards to economic announcements and central banks, as PBoC, BoJ, BoC and ECB rate decision are expected to take place although none are expected to shake the market. Meanwhile, reduced liquidity will define trading on Friday as the Chinese Lunar New Year holiday begins. Monday – 20 January 2020 * Interest Rate Decision (CNY, GMT 01:30) – The PBoC is expected to keep its interest rates at 4.15%. Tuesday – 21 January 2020 * Interest Rate Decision and Conference (JPY, GMT 03:00) – The central bank signaled its commitment to keep interest rates at current levels “for an extended period of time, at least through around spring 2020”. The BoJ Governor said in his last statement that cutting rates further is a possible policy option, adding that he doesn’t think that Japan is near the reversal rate. He also said that he doesn’t think the BoJ needs to change the forward guidance for now. Hence this is likely to remain the scenario in this week’s Monetary Policy Statement. * Employment and Earnings (GBP, GMT 09:30) – Earning growth excluding bonus is expected to have declined by 3.4% in November, below the 3.5% the previous month. The ILO unemployment rate (3M) for November could rise to 3.9% from 3.8%. * ZEW Economic Sentiment (EUR, GMT 10:00) – German Economic Sentiment for January is projected at 4.3 from the 10.7 seen last month, as the current conditions indicator for Germany turned negative. The overall Eurozone reading though is expected to decline further to 5.5 from 11.2. A lower than expected outcome ties in with the stagnation in market sentiment at the start of the month. Wednesday – 22 January 2020 * Consumer Price Index and Core (CAD, GMT 13:30) – The average of the three core CPI measures for December is expected to have come out slightly lower than last month, at 2.1% y/y from 2.2% y/y. The CPI backstops continue to back the BoC’s steady policy outlook. * Interest Rate Decision and Conference (CAD, GMT 15:00) – No change is seen in the current 1.75% policy setting, alongside an announcement and MPR that are consistent with steady policy through year end. Thursday- 23 January 2020 * Labour Market Data (AUD, GMT 13:30) – Australia’s recent employment report showed a slowdown in jobs growth also affected by the bushfires crisis. In December, the unemployment rate is anticipated to jump back to 5.3% while the employment change is expected to fall to 14K from 39.9K last time. * ECB Interest Rate Decision and Conference (EUR, GMT 12:45 & 13:30) – The ECB is expected to keep policy on hold in January as policy review starts. The ECB kept policy on hold and re-affirmed easing bias at the December policy meeting. * Consumer Price Index (NZD, GMT 21:45) – The overall New Zealand CPI for Q4 should rise to 2.2% y/y from 1.5%. * Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (JPY, GMT 23:50) – The BoJ Minutes report provides the BoJ Members’ opinions regarding the Japanese economic outlook and any views regarding future rate changes. Friday – 24 January 2020 * Chinese New Year’s Eve – Asia Markets closed * Markit PMI (EUR, GMT 09:00) – The prel. December manufacturing PMI was revised up to 46.3 from 45.9, still down from 46.9 in November. The manufacturing sector has been stuck in recession for eleven successive months. The composite PMI for January meanwhile is expected to be lifted to 51.0 along with a possible rise in services. * Markit PMI (GBP, GMT 09:30) – The prel. UK Services PMI for January is forecasted to register a downwards reading to 49.4 after the upwards revision last week at 50.0. * Retail Sales (CAD, GMT 13:30) – Retail Sales should register a gain in November to 0.1%, after the -1.2% plunge to 0.1% in total sales values in October. * Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 15:00) – The Manufacturing PMI is expected to have decreased to 52.3 in January, compared to 52.4 in December. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
  18. Market Analysis and News.

    Date : 17th January 2020. Positive bias on the back of US & Chinese Data 17th January 2020. Positive bias on the back of US & Chinese Data – Sentiment was supported by robust US retail sales on Thursday, ongoing good will following the Phase One trade deal and good earnings data, despite the slowdown of Chinese GDP growth to the lowest in 29 years. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
  19. Market Analysis and News.

    Date : 16th January 2020. Narrow US trade gap in Q4 – Its meaning and what to expect in 2020? 16th January 2020. A drop in the bilateral trade deficit between the US and China in Q4 sharply understates the underlying improvement, thanks to a powerful seasonal pattern in goods trade between the two countries that bloated the Q4 deficit. A plunge is anticipated in the gap to a February trough that should mark the narrowest deficit since 2013. Though the overall US trade gap will widen in 2020 if the economy grows, phase-one agreement will be followed by news over the coming three months of a collapsing US-China trade deficit. The US-China trade deficit for goods narrowed sharply last winter to just $20.7 bln in March of 2019 from a peak of $43.1 bln in October of 2018, with a gyration that was exacerbated by tariff front running. The seasonal widening into Q4 of 2019 failed to occur, while a seasonal narrowing is expected into the Lunar New Year that should prompt a February goods deficit in the $20 bln area — less than half of the peak just 16 months earlier. The seasonal pattern is mostly driven by the US import data from China. The unusually large gyration in 2018 was due to tariff front running, which pulled imports ahead into Q4 from Q1. Goods imports appeared to resume their seasonal climb until they reached a $41.5 bln level in July of 2019, leaving an -11.9% shortfall from July of 2018. From their, the seasonal climb oddly ended, and imports fell to just $36.5 bln in November to leave a y/y drop of an enormous -21.6%. If the seasonal drop now unfolds, imports from China should fall to the $28 bln area by February. The drop will be exacerbated this year by a relatively early Lunar New Year date of January 25. The seasonal pattern for imports has been quite stable over the years, until the big deviation in the pattern in 2019, which suggests that the atypical seasonal behavior this year is due to the “trade war.” The seasonal pattern is less stable, and less pronounced, for US goods exports to China, and the pattern of US exports has been fairly erratic over the last year. The dominant pattern over the past two years has been a drop in US exports to China between the start of the “trade war” in early 2018 to a trough in January of 2019, before largely stabilizing since then.The fact that Chinese policymakers cut all unnecessary trade with the US over this period, leaves little room for further cuts through 2019 and into 2020. Beyond the “trade war,” there have been two other major patterns in the US trade data that will likely have the effect of narrowing the US-China bilateral trade deficit over the coming year. One is the depressing effect on US exports from the 737 MAX grounding since March of 2019, leaving a likely dramatic rebound over the year following the lifting of the FAA ban presumably later this year. The other major pattern is the steep climb in US exports of petroleum products, as the Permian Basin is rapidly transforming into a major export center thanks to ongoing innovations in pressurized and lateral drilling. The seasonal patterns are expected to allow a deficit to return for the last time between December and April, before the US becomes a “permanent” net petroleum exporter. China is dependent on petroleum imports, and hence it is anticipated that US exporters capture more of this market over the coming years, especially given that the phase-one deal involves a shift in Chinese purchases toward US commodities. The combination of a narrowing US-China trade deficit, strength in US exports of petroleum-related products, and an assumed Boeing-led surge in capital goods exports at some point this year, may all suggest a narrowing US trade gap. Hence to be sure, as the trade gap declined to the lowest during Donald Trump presidency, will add to GDP if not in the long term definitely in the near term, possible during February-March with help from the Chinese New Year and Phase-1 deal. Overall however, a US GDP growth out-performance versus other countries in 2020 is anticipated, and a firm Dollar with strong capital account inflows, that should fuel a widening trade deficit through the year despite the narrowing bilateral gap with China. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
  20. Market Analysis and News.

    Date : 15th January 2020. GOLDMAN SACHS and the 4th Quarter of 2019 15th January 2020. As Earnings season is kicking off again, focus is on the Banks’ reports this week. JP Morgan, City Group and Wells Fargo published their Q4 2019 reports yesterday before the US market open. JP Morgan and City Group beat expectations strongly, whilst Walls Fargo missed and saw its shares falling over 4% right after the report. Today, investors’ attention is on whether Bank of America and GS will follow JP Morgan’s success story. Goldman Sachs is scheduled to release its Q4 and full-year 2019 results before the US market open. In Q3 2019, the bank beat revenue forecasts but missed in earnings, while it posted a decline in Revenue and earnings in comparison with the previous quarter, affected by weakness seen in Investment Banking and Lending. Overall, in the past 2 years it has beaten earning and revenue estimations 88% of the time. GS , in an attempt to improve its profitability and stock performance, has proceeded with several changes and several restructure and expansion plans for the near future and also the next 5 years. One of their latest projects, which was launched in August, was the development of credit cards with Apple, while they also introduced a long-awaited app last week (January 8), which according to Reuters, ” will integrate with the financial giant’s digital bank, Marcus”. Marcus is Goldman Sachs’s consumer banking unit, which was founded by Goldman Sachs in 2016, named after the bank’s founder Marcus Goldman. In the long term meanwhile, GS has focused on its request to the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC). As the China Morning Post stated, GS is one of the US banks which has an official branch in China and has been applying to the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) since last August to take majority control of its venture known as Goldman Sachs Gao Hua Securities, seeking to raise its stake to 51% from 33%. The hiring push on the mainland is part of the US bank’s new five-year plan in which Chief Executive David Solomon is looking to improve its profitability and share price performance. It will be interesting to see whether all the above expansion plans will affect the bank’s earnings report today, but also how they could expand its wealth management business and broaden its revenue streams in 2020. Zack’s estimates for Q4 Earnings are: EPS Estimate: $5.20 Sales Estimates: Low: 8.70B High: 8.82B Year over Year Growth: 8.37% Earnings Estimates: Low: $4.54 High: $5.42 Year over Year Growth: -13.91% Technical overview: The monthly chart shows the free fall seen on GS shares in 2018 to $151.60 from its all-time high in March 2018 at $275.60. In 2019, shares managed to recover by nearly 78%, as the price moved successfully to $274.64. However, in the Daily chart, momentum indicators suggest that positive bias is starting to lose some ground , with OBV indicator unable to move further to the upside, suggesting nearterm weakness. The asset price is still moving upwards, however it’s moving outside the upper Bollinger Bands area, with RSI crossing above 70, both suggesting that the asset looks overbought. This comes in line with OBV. Hence from a technical perspective a correction could be seen in the medium term as the asset is overbought. From the data perspective, positive bias could theoretically strengthen if the upcoming earnings report beats expectations. Resistance levels: $249, $261, $275 Support levels: $236, $227, $214 Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Ahura Chalki Regional Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
  21. Market Analysis and News.

    Date : 14th January 2020. Optimism pressures Safe Havens while Crypto rallies Optimism pressures Safe Havens while Crypto rallies – A fresh injection of risk-on trading saw the Yen decline further and stocks rally overnight after trade data out of China showed a drop in exports to the US last year. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
  22. Market Analysis and News.

    Date : 13th January 2020. FX Update January 13 – Sterling Stressed 13th January 2020. GBPUSD, H1 Sterling has taken a turn lower in early week trading, with markets reacting to both dovish BoE-speak and to a report from the UK’s Institute for Government finding that it will be impossible to deliver the computer systems for the special arrangements for Northern Ireland’s border by the end of the year. Prime Minister Johnson has pledged, and worked into the Withdrawal Agreement legislation, to leave the post-Brexit transition period by the end of the year, hence the negative reaction by markets. Ireland’s deputy Prime Minister Coveney also said that forming a new trade deal between the EU and UK is “probably going to take longer than a year.” Member of the BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee Vlieghe, meanwhile, said in the FT over the weekend that he is ready to cut rates if data doesn’t improve, similar to the view expressed by governor Carney last week. Cable has dropped nearly 0.5% in printing a 17-day low at 1.29845, while EURGBP has risen by a similar magnitude in making a 17-day peak at 0.8560. However, the biggest mover has been GBPAUD down some 0.55% and trades blow 1.8800 once again. Elsewhere, EURUSD has lifted above its Friday high in making 1.1132 in a move driven by moderate Euro outperformance. EURJPY has posted a two-week high at 122.05, while EURCHF and other Euro crosses have also seen gains. The Yen remained on a generally weak footing as Asia’s MSCI Asia-Pacific index hit a new 19-month high with investors anticipating Wednesday’s signing of the US-China phase-1 trade deal. USDJPY was buoyant, though remained below Friday’s 18-day high at 109.68, and could not close the weak over 109.50, strong resistance sits at 109.70. AUDJPY posted a fresh 10-day peak. AUDUSD posted a six-day peak. Liquidity was below par in Asia with Japanese markets closed for a public holiday. The US-China trade deal will be a major focus this week as the details haven’t been made public, a reported 86-page document is to be signed and questions remain over Chinese compliance and their ability to actually fulfill their obligations and from the US side, their willingness to reimpose tariffs in an election year. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
  23. Market Analysis and News.

    B]Date : 10th January 2020. FX Update – JPY Weak & NFP Preview10th January 2020.[/B] USDJPY, H1 The Yen posted fresh lows as global stock markets hit new record highs, (APPLE, the world’s largest company, moved up over 2% to $308 following good iPhone sales in China) while the likes of the Australian Dollar and many developing-nation currencies rallied. USDJPY, now in its fifth consecutive up day, printed a fresh two-week high at 107.60, which is just 12 pips shy of the seven-month high that was seen in early December. A close over 109.50 today would suggest more upside for the pair next week. AUDJPY lifted to a five-day high and was the best performing pair, moving 0.33% and holding over 75.25, having topped at 75.41 and rolled over from its overbought condition at the London open. EURJPY also rose to an eight-day high. In stock markets, the MSCI All-Country World Index hit a new record high today, which followed the record highs that the three main US indices and the pan-Europe Stoxx 600 Equity Index saw yesterday. Oil prices remained heavy, some 11% down on the high seen just a couple of days ago, with the US and Iran having stepped back from the cliff edge. News that iPhone sales in China rose 18% y/y in December gave tech stocks a boost, while also boding well for US-Sino relations, with China’s Vice Premier Liu, head of Beijing’s trade negotiation team, travelling to Washington next week to sign the phase-1 trade deal with the US. Elsewhere in the forex markets, the Dollar has traded mixed, leaving the narrow trade-weighted USDIndex (DXY) net unchanged. EURUSD remained settled in a narrow range near 1.1100. The Dollar lost ground to the Australian currency, with AUDUSD lifting to a two-day high at 0.6882 in what is the pair’s first up day of the year so far. Cable remained below the 1.3100 level, while USDCAD settled just above 1.3050, below the two-week high seen yesterday at 1.3104. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

বিডিপিপস কি এবং কেন?

বিডিপিপস বাংলাদেশের সর্বপ্রথম অনলাইন ফরেক্স কমিউনিটি এবং বাংলা ফরেক্স স্কুল। প্রথমেই বলে রাখা জরুরি, বিডিপিপস কাউকে ফরেক্স ট্রেডিংয়ে অনুপ্রাণিত করে না। যারা বর্তমানে ফরেক্স ট্রেডিং করছেন, শুধুমাত্র তাদের জন্যই বিডিপিপস একটি আলোচনা এবং অ্যানালাইসিস পোর্টাল। ফরেক্স ট্রেডিং একটি ব্যবসা এবং উচ্চ লিভারেজ নিয়ে ট্রেড করলে তাতে যথেষ্ট ঝুকি রয়েছে। যারা ফরেক্স ট্রেডিংয়ের যাবতীয় ঝুকি সম্পর্কে সচেতন এবং বর্তমানে ফরেক্স ট্রেডিং করছেন, বিডিপিপস শুধুমাত্র তাদের ফরেক্স শেখা এবং উন্নত ট্রেডিংয়ের জন্য সহযোগিতা প্রদান করার চেষ্টা করে।

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