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  1. Date : 30th March 2020. MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 30th March 2020.All major countries across the world are effectively locked down now as virus developments remain in focus, with ever bigger aid packages. The data this week especially from the US were highly infected by the pandemic. Hence, as disruptions from COVID-19 have begun to catch up to the soft data measures, the impact will likely be greater in the late-month measures of sentiment. Recession fears could be further escalated if we see any effect in the March US jobs.Monday – 30 March 2020 Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (EUR, GMT 12:00) – The German HICP preliminary inflation for March is anticipated to decline at 1.4% y/y from 1.7% y/y. Pending Home Sales (USD, GMT 14:00) – Pending home sales rebounded in January to 5.2% m/m, however, for February we could see a big -0.3% pull-back. Tuesday – 31 March 2020 Manufacturing PMI (CNY, GMT 01:00) – The NBS Manufacturing PMI is expected to massively decline to 4.4 in March from 35.7, as a subsequence of the shut down after the lunar new year holiday. Gross Domestic Product (GBP, GMT 06:00) – GDP is the economy’s most important figure. Q4’s GDP is expected to be unchanged at 0% q/q and 1.1% y/y. Unemployment data (EUR, GMT 07:55) – The German unemployment rate in March is expected to have increased to 5.1% from 5.0%, while unemployment change is expected to have peaked to 30K from February’s drop to -10K. Consumer Price Index (EUR, GMT 09:00) –HCPI inflation dropped back to 1.2% y/y in February from 1.4% y/y in the previous month, while core inflation actually moved up to 1.2% y/y from 1.1% y/y in January. This month’s core is expected unchanged, while HICP is anticipated lower at 0.8% y/y/. Gross Domestic Product (CAD, GMT 12:30) – Canada GDP results for January are seen to be slowing down, at a monthly rate of 0.2% compared to 0.3% last month. CB Consumer Confidence (USD, GMT 14:00) – The Conference Board Index is expected to have decreased to 121.0, compared to 130.7 in the previous month. Wednesday – 01 April 2020 Caixin Manufacturing PMI (CNY, GMT 01:45) – The Caixin manufacturing PMI is expected to spike to 46.5 from 40.3 in February. ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (USD, GMT 12:15) – The ADP Employment survey is seen at 216k for March compared to the 183K in February. ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 14:00) – The ISM index is expected to fall to 43.0 in March from 50.1 in February, compared to a 14-year high of 60.8 in August of 2018. EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (USOIL, GMT 14:30) Thursday – 02 April 2020 Trade balance (USD, GMT 12:30) – The US trade deficit narrowed -6.7% to -$45.3 bln in January following the 11.0% December jump to -$48.6 bln. February’s one is expected to widen further. Friday – 03 April 2020 Retail Sales (AUD, GMT 00:30) – February’s Retail sales could be improved by 0.4%, following a 0.3% January loss. Event of the Week – Non-Farm Payrolls (USD, GMT 12:30) – A -100k March nonfarm payroll drop is anticipated, following 273k increases in both February and January. This is based on assumptions such as the -20k factory jobs drop in March, and a 47k boost from assumed Census hiring as this temporary job count starts to climb more rapidly. The jobless rate should rise to 3.8% from 3.5%, as COVID-19 disruptions start to take their toll. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 14:00) – The ISM-NMI index is expected to fall to 49.0 from 57.3 in February, versus a recent low of 53.5 in September of 2019 and a 13-year high of 61.2 in September of 2018. The “soft data” measures are finally starting to show a hit from coronavirus disruptions and the emerging OPEC price war, and these hits should be bigger for the late-March reports than the early-March reports. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
  2. Date : 27th March 2020. FX Update – 27 March 2020.USDJPY, H1The Dollar declined and then recovered some of its losses, which saw the narrow trade-weighted USDIndex print a nine-day low at 99.15 before recouping levels back above 99.40. At the lows, the index was showing a correction of 3.2% from the 38-month high that was seen last week, which can be credited to the Fed’s ultra-aggressive dollar printing activity. There has also been a side theme of pronounced losses in USDJPY and Yen crosses, which look out of sync with the usual correlative pattern in light of a backdrop of mostly-higher stock and commodity markets in Asia today (which often times, especially in the prevailing crisis, would be associated with a softening in the Japanese currency). The demand for Yen was reportedly driven by repatriation of Japanese investment funds, according to several market reports and narratives, even though the timing — just a few days before Japan’s financial year end — seems a little strange. USDJPY, aided by broad Dollar weakness, dropped by about another 1% in printing a one-week low at 108.25. EURJPY, AUDJPY and most other Yen crosses declined, too, which amounted to a correction. Subsequently, the Yen gave back up to half of its gains as the European interbank market picked up the reins, and expectations, should risk appetite hold up, the Yen could soften from here. The USDJPY and the crossing EMA strategy (H1) closed out in the last hour as the 9-period EMA was broken at 108.89 from an entry at 111.14 on March 25, a 220 pip move.Elsewhere, EURUSD edged out a 10-day high at 1.1088, before ebbing back under 1.1050. Cable printed an eleven-day high, at 1.2306. As for the coronavirus, the exponential rate of new cases has continued. Cases in the US have surged, and it might be several weeks before the fruits of the global lockdown is seen. Few are now expecting a V-shaped economic recovery out of this, such as was seen following the SARS epidemic in Asia in 2003. The key question is how wide the “U” will be in a U-shaped recovery? An old market adage has always been to, never try to catch a falling knife.Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
  3. Date : 26th March 2020. GER30: Back to risk-off….but for how long?EGBs have rallied with Treasuries and with Eurozone spreads coming in after the ECB confirmed that it will drop issuer limits in its EUR 750 bln QE program. Tapping the ESM and finally using Draghi’s OMT program are also on the cards for the Eurozone as governments try to limit the impact of the pandemic. Despite the massive US stimulus package and additional promises from European officials, stocks markets headed south in Europe and US futures are also broadly lower, ahead of likely dismal US jobless claims.The 10-year Bund yield was down -3.9 bp at -0.308%, the Gilt yield down -3.7 bp at 0.398% US Treasury yields had declined -6.1 bp to 0.806%. Greek 10-year rates dropped nearly 34 bp as Eurozone spreads narrowed. GER and UK100 meanwhile are both down -2.1%.FX market volatility has been on the decline this week, as massive global stimulus has ratcheted markets away from panic mode that prevailed last week. However the market will continue to remain subject to high volatility and overall underperformance as long as the coronavirus contagion remains in a state of increasing spread.The plethora of global monetary and fiscal responses have helped stocks finding a sustainable reprieve, however so far today as volatility remains high we have seen pullbacks. Whether these are corrections or signs of reversal, no one knows yet!In the EU, GER30 in contrast with UK100, has gain some ground, having a distance of more than 1600 points from 7-years lows. This reflects to more than 35% reversal, but does it look sufficient enough in order to believe in a reversal? Technically responding, the sentiment that we have seen that last few sessions presents positive bias in the short term, with the asset holding bottom above 9,500 (23.6% Fib. level at 9,523) despite the doji Wednesday. This provides relief, that 38.2% Fib is still on the cards. A breakout above the short term pennant formation could open the doors towards a retest of 38.2% Fib. retracement level at 10,358 (this could fill March 12 gap) .In the medium term meanwhile, daily momentum remain negative even though they are giving signs if weakness. RSI recovered from oversold levels but remains below neutral zone and MACD is at the negative are however it is extending above its signal line suggesting decreasing negative bias.There is clearly plenty of volatility still to play out, but the way this move is shaping, weakness is now being bought into.Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
  4. Date : 25th March 2020. FX Update – March 25 – USD CoolsUSDCAD, H1The commodity (AUD again today’s best performer) and many developing world currencies have continued to rebound, while the Dollar, Yen and Swiss franc have traded generally softer. This comes with Asian stock markets rallying and European markets opening positively after the DJIA equity index posted its biggest single-day rally on Wall Street since 1933. The US Senate and White reached agreement on a $2 tln fiscal stimulus package, which joins a growing list of countries around the world to have unveiled bazooka-sized spending packages, joining ambitious central bank monetary stimulus efforts aimed at mitigating the impact of virus containing measures. This comes amid tentative signs that the lockdown in Italy is starting to work, as new cases and the death rate ebb. There are also other signs of encouragement, such as news that 20% of US companies in China have reported that they have returned to normal operations, showing that there is economic life after lockdown.Among the main currencies, USDJPY has traded neutrally so far today, while most Yen crosses, especially those with a commodity or developing world currency counterpart, have lifted. USDJPY has held with a range of 110.75-111.50, narrow by recent standards and well within the bounds of yesterday’s range. EURJPY has posted modest gains, but remained below yesterday’s peak. AUDJPY, amid its fifth consecutive up day, posted a 10-day high at 67.25. AUDUSD lifted by 1.2% in printing an eight-day high at 0.6060, extending the rebound from last week’s 18-year low of 10%. USDCAD fell to a five-day low at S2 and below 1.4300 at 1.4299, with the Canadian Dollar continuing to correlate closely with oil prices, which today extended over 3% higher to five-day highs, but remains capped at $25.00. EURUSD has traded higher, to the mid 1.0800s, but has remained comfortably within Tuesday’s range.Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
  5. Date : 24th March 2020. FX Update – March 24 2020AUDUSD, H1Currencies moved in a risk-on formation, with the Dollar, Yen and Swiss franc weakening against most other currencies, with the commodity and many developing-world currencies outperforming. This came with S&P 500 futures rallying strongly, more than reversing the 2.9% closing loss the cash version of the index saw yesterday on Wall Street. Oil, most base metals and other commodity prices also rose. Asian stock markets also rallied. The massive $2 tln coronavirus stimulus bill in the US looks near to being passed in the Senate. The Fed’s ultra-aggressive pledge of unlimited dollar funding also appears to be having some success. The US 2-year note yield dropped yesterday to a near seven-year low of 0.79%, which, although higher today, concomitantly put a lid on the Dollar. The narrow trade-weighted USDIndex dropped by about 1% in printing a four-day low at 101.45, extending the correction from the 38-month high that was seen last Friday at 102.99. EURUSD and Cable concurrently lifted just over 1%, to respective five-day and intraday highs at 1.0866 and 1.1695. The biggest mover out of the main dollar pairings and associated crosses has been AUDUSD, which lifted by over 2%, making a four-day peak at 0.5975. The Aussie dollar has now rebounded by over 8% from the 18-year low it saw last week, at 0.5507. With oil prices posting a near 5% rally, USDCAD turned lower, back below 1.4400, though the pair remained above yesterday’s low at 1.4335.As for the coronavirus, more countries have been going lock-down, the latest of note being the UK, and the major question about how long it will be before something approaching normal economic activity resumes. Incoming preliminary March PMI survey data have and will continue to paint a grim picture of the economic consequences to date.Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
  6. Date : 17th March 2020. What is a Circuit Breaker and How it Works? 17th March 2020 The FOMC’s historic reactions to the COVID-19 spread, with its emergency 100 bp rate cut on Monday 16th of March pledging infinite liquidity, did nothing to soothe investor worries, and indeed may have sharpen recession concerns. Those fears, along with Fed coupon purchases, underpinned a strong bid in Treasuries which saw yields from the belly outward richen over 20 bps. Hence Monday’s opening was delayed as the indexes were limit down. After the FOMC’s action, the USA30 posted its largest point decline in history, sliding -2997 points (-12.9%), and the USA500 fell 11.5%, both triggering an automatic 15-minute halt. This is the third time in the past two weeks that major US and foreign indices hit their emergency circuit breaker as the market opened; this isn’t the first time that a market has been halted due to massive volatility, however it is not something that you see often. Last time it was the turmoil of the 2008 housing crisis that put the country into recession. But what is a circuit breaker and how does it work? Circuit breakers were introduced to prevent another event like the Black Monday of 1987, when the Dow Jones fell by 22.6%, in a single trading day, by pausing trading if the S&P 500 price falls too low. After being tested for the first time in 1997, they were triggered again in March 2020. So, why did that happen and how do circuit breakers work? What are circuit breakers? Circuit breakers, which are calculated daily, are set at 7%, 13% and 20% of the closing price of the S&P500 for the previous day. If the price drops 7% in a single session, trading is halted for 15 minutes, and, depending on what happens next, trading may be halted again temporarily or for the rest of the day. How do circuit breakers work? There are three levels: A level 1 circuit breaker is applied when there is a single-day, single-session decline of 7%. Trading is paused for 15 minutes to give traders the chance to reevaluate their options and stop panic selling. If there is improvement when trading is reopened after the break, the session will continue as usual. If the drop continues and reaches 13% before 3:25pm (New York time), a level 2 circuit breaker will be applied and trading will be stopped for another 15 minutes. If the drop continues still further and reaches 20%, the situation is considered critical and a level 3 circuit breaker will come into force. At this highest level, trading is stopped for the rest of the day regardless of what time it is. Are circuit breakers used only for market indices? No, they’re not! Individual securities have their own circuit breakers, known as the “Limit Up-Limit Down rule”, which means that trading is stopped whenever the price moves too far up or down away from predetermined acceptable levels. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
  7. Date : 16th March 2020 Events to Look Out For Next Week 16th March 2020. Another eventful week is over, while an even more busier is expected. A policy-packed week once again, with monetary policy meeting in the world’s major economies, and the potential for guidance regarding future interest rate actions, from Fed, BoJ and SNB. The focus remains squarely on COVID-19. Assuming the coronavirus continues to spread exponentially, which is what the epidemiologists are warning, global markets are likely to ensure further panicky risk-off phases. Tuesday – 17 March 2020 RBA Minutes and House Prices (AUD, GMT 00:30) – The RBA minutes should provide guidance as to how whether the RBA members actually are prepared for further easing. The bank signalled in its last meeting that it is ready to do more in a coordinated fiscal-monetary policy action. Average Earnings (GBP, GMT 09:30) – Average Earnings excluding bonus are expected to have grown by 3.3% in January. The ILO unemployment rate is expected to have remained at 3.8%. Economic Sentiment (EUR, GMT 10:00) – German March ZEW economic sentiment is expected to have sharply declined to -23.4 compared to 10.4 in February. Retail Sales ( USD, GMT 12:30) – February gains of 0.2% are anticipated for headline retail sales and 0.3% for the ex-auto figure, following January gains of 0.3% for both measures. A -3.5% drop is seen for the CPI gasoline index, with an associated drop in service station sales. Wednesday – 18 March 2020 CPI Inflation (CAD, GMT 12:30) – Canadian core inflation is expected to have declined to 1.7% y/y, compared to 1.8% y/y in January. Fed Interest Rate Decision and Conference (USD, GMT 18:00) – Fed announced on March 12, a massive repo term operations of a maximum of $500 bln in 1- and 3-month repos across the maturity spectrum. The market is still looking for aggressive easing by the FOMC next week, with another 50 bp rate cut with potential for move before FOMC meeting on 17th, 18th. Some Fedwatchers are projecting a 100 bp easing. Gross Domestic Product (NZD, GMT 21:45) – New Zealand Q4 GDP is expected to have dropped by 0.5% q/q, compared to 0.7% q/q in 2019Q3. Thursday – 19 March 2019 Employment Data (AUD, GMT 00:30) – Both the unemployment Rate and the employment change are expected to have eased in February, decreasing to 5.2% and 11.6k respectively. BoJ Interest Rate Decision and Conference (JPY, GMT 03:00- 06:00) – Shadowed by the Covid-19, the BoJ has less room for monetary policy manoeuvre, with Japan not depending of foreign investment inflows to sustain financing and with Japanese investors apt during times of risk aversion in global markets to repatriate capital from the sale of foreign assets, and/or put on currency hedges on foreign assets. Survey data released showed large Japanese manufacturers’ business sentiment fell to a nine-year low in Q1, which will keep the BoJ under pressure to loosen monetary policy at its upcoming policy review on March 18th-19th, however markets anticipate no change in the rates by BoJ . SNB Interest Rate Decision (CHF, GMT 08:30) – The SNB is not expected to surprise markets as the Swiss rate is forecast to remain at -0.75%. Friday – 20 March 2020 PBoC Interest Rate Decision (CNY, GMT 01:30) –The People’s Bank of China injected $79 billion into the economy through a reduction in reserve ratios for banks, while it offered discounts to banks’ reserve ratios of between half and 1 percentage point from their original level. Retail Sales (CAD, GMT 12:30) – Canada’s retail sales contracted in Q4, tracking expectations for a slowing in GDP. In contrast to Q4 outcome, January 2020 sales volume is forecasted at 0.3% gain from the flat December reading. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
  8. Date : 13th March 2020. Morning Update – March 13 2020 13th March FX News Today – Good Morning – The DJIA suffered its biggest 1 day fall since Black Monday 19 October 1987 – Trump travel ban, disappointment from ECB and pandemic panic gripped markets. The FED and other central banks and governments have been forced to intervene. USD sees increased demand. Volatility n Uncertainty persist. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
  9. Date : 12th March 2020. Morning Update – March 12 2020 12th March FX News Today – Wednesday washout is becoming Thursday fallout. Equities closed down 5% and now down 20% from February peak and in a BEAR market, TRUMP bans travel from Europe (26 countries) – but not bizarrely the UK. Triggers further selling in Asia Nikkei down 4.4%, ASX down 7% . – JPY, CHF up, Treasuries in demand – Oil down again Gold also slips. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
  10. Date : 11th March 2020. Central Banks – Race to the Bottom – Again? 11th March GBPUSD, H1 The latest Central Bank to act (in another surprise and unscheduled announcement) is the Bank of England. The BoE slashed rates by 50 basis points (bp) to address Covid-19 impact. The BoE cut bank rate to 0.25% from 0.75%, saying that the decision was made at a special meeting on March 10. There will also be a new funding scheme to support lending to small businesses impacted by the fallout from the virus. Although that is the plan these funds (expected to be around 100 million GBP) usually end up supporting the UK mortgage market. At the press conference, just completed, Carney emphasized that the total package was a “big package, a big package” a number of times and clearly wanted that to be the clear message. But also caveating the message that the COVID-19 impact is likely to be short, sharp potentially significant but ultimately short-lived. The first emergency move since the financial crisis highlights the impact of the virus on the economic outlook and comes a week after the Fed cut rates by 50 bp and a day before the ECB meeting, which is also expected to bring additional easing measures. The decision was unanimous and the bank said in a statement that “although the magnitude of the economic shock from Covid-19 is highly uncertain, activity is likely to weaken materially in the United Kingdom over the coming months”. President Trump continued the pressure on the Fed yesterday with tweets aimed squarely at Jay Powell and the slow response (in his opinion) of the FED to cut rates. The ECB is expected to cut rates by at least 10bp tomorrow and with more stimulus also likely. The FOMC and BOJ also have scheduled meetings next week with more action by both anticipated, then if not before. Volatility and uncertainty persist and volumes in markets all remain elevated. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
  11. Date : 09th March 2020 Events to Look Out For Next Week 09th March 2020. Leading indicators such as US Inflation and GDP from Europe and the US dominate the releases next week. The highlight of the week is the ECB rate decision, while markets are going to remain focused on the threat Covid-19 poses. Have a look at the most important events of the coming days in our usual weekly publication. Monday – 09 March 2020 Industrial Production and Trade Balance (EUR, GMT 07:00) – German Industrial Production growth is expected to have stood at 1.5% seasonally adjusted m/m in January, compared to the -3.5% decline seen in December. Housing Starts (CAD, GMT 12:15) – Canada’s improvement in January housing starts tracks the expected housing boost to Q1 GDP. In February, the index is expected to slip lower to 205K from 213.2K. Tuesday – 10 March 2020 Producer Price Index (CNY, GMT 01:30) – Chinese February PPI is expected to have remained at the same levels as in January, at 0.1% y/y. Consumer Price Index (CNY, GMT 01:30) – Chinese inflation is expected to drop in February as coronavirus cases soar. The overall outcome is seen at 4.9% from 5.4%, while the monthly reading should be at 0.8% from 1.4% last month. Gross Domestic Product (EUR, GMT 10:00) – Eurozone seasonally adjusted GDP for Q4 2019 is expected to remain unchanged on an annualized and quarterly rate. Wednesday – 11 March 2020 Gross Domestic Product (GBP, GMT 09:30) – The UK economy’s most important figure, GDP is expected to be lower at 0.2% m/m following the 0.3% reading for December. Industrial and Manufacturing Production (GBP, GMT 09:30) – The two indices are expected to have both grown to 0.4% m/m in January, with industrial production recovering significantly from the 0.1% in the prior month. Consumer Price Index (USD, GMT 12:30) – Expectations have been set flat for February headline CPI figure with a 0.2% core price increase, following respective January readings of 0.1% and 0.2%. As-expected February figures would result in a headline y/y increase of 2.2%, down from 2.5% in January. Core prices should set a 2.3% y/y rise for a fourth consecutive month. We have seen an up-tilt in y/y gains into Q1 of 2020 due to harder comparisons, though this lift is being capped in February and March by price weakness related to the Covid-19 outbreak. Thursday – 12 March 2020 ECB Interest Rate Decision and Conference (EUR, GMT 12:45 & 13:30) – The ECB is under pressure to step in as virus developments hit the markets. The ECB may have planned to focus on the strategic policy review this year, but recent market developments have increased the pressure on the central bank to act sooner rather than later to address the impact of Covid-19. There isn’t much room for rate cuts, although a 10 bp cut in the deposit rate is a possibility and now pretty widely expected. If the ECB goes down that route it will likely expand the exclusion band to limit the hit for banks. In this situation where supply disruptions are increasingly apparent, lower rates may not help much, but the move would have a signaling effect, which could help to bolster sentiment. Friday – 13 March 2020 Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (EUR, GMT 07:00) – The German HICP inflation for February is seen steady at 1.7% y/y. Michigan Sentiment (USD, GMT 15:00) – US consumer sentiment was revised up to 101.0 in the final February print from the University of Michigan survey, versus the 100.9 in the preliminary, and it’s up 1.2 points from January’s 99.8. This is the highest since March 2018 (which was the best since January 2004). The preliminary March Michigan sentiment reading is anticipated to decline to 97. On the flip side, a better than expected report, though it’s not likely to assuage COVID-19 fears. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
  12. Date : 02nd March 2020. Hopes of coordinated Central Banks help! 02nd March Bonds rallied and stock markets looked somewhat better as unscheduled statements from both the BoJ and the Fed sparked speculation of coordinated global central bank cuts. Fed Chairman Powell was already forced to issue a statement on Friday saying the bank will take appropriate action to support the economy and the BoJ followed over the weekend. The BoJ followed over the weekend, saying that it will “strive to provide ample liquidity and ensure stability in financial markets through appropriate market operations and asset purchases”. The BoJ already offered to buy 500 billion Yen of government bonds via repurchase agreements to provide liquidity and the comments and actions helped local stock markets to recover earlier losses. A rate cut from the RBA in Australia tomorrow is now seen as pretty much a done deal and speculation that there will be a coordinated move from global central banks this week has helped bond as well as stock markets. Stock markets had initially been under pressure this morning also due to the weak Chinese manufacturing PMI readings highlighted the impact of virus disruptions. China’s February manufacturing PMI plunged a surprising 14.3 points to 35.7, a record low. This is one of the first pieces of data reflecting the impact of COVID-19, and obviously it’s not good. This new nadir beats the prior figure of 38.8 from November 2008. It’s also the steepest drop on the books. Bloomberg cited Nomura’s chief China economist Lu Ting who noted the data might even have been worse. A rise in delivery times helped boost the index, but the longer delivery time was a function of the COVID-related shutdowns and transportation dislocations, and not due to a jump in demand. Meanwhile, the non-manufacturing index tumbled 24.5 points to 29.6 in February from 54.1 in January. It’s also the lowest on record. However the potential of coordinated global Central Bank action have helped both Bond and Equity markets to overcome the PMI weakness. JPN225 gained 1%, while the Hang Seng lifted 0.78% and CSI 300 and Shanghai Comp rallied 3.7% and 3.4%. The GER30 and UK100 futures are up 1.4% and 1.8% respectively, while US futures are posting gains of 0.4-0.6%. In FX markets EURUSD is trading at 1.1043 and the pound is at 1.625 against the EUR and 1.2837 against the Dollar. The USDJPY lifted to 108.23, after the BoJ statement, while USOIL future traded at $46.10. Elsewhere, ECB officials have argued that it is too early to make a decision on an appropriate reaction to virus developments, but clearly with markets looking increasingly fragile central bankers will have to issue at least some assurance. German Economy Minister Altmeier meanwhile repeated that the government will address the implication of virus disruptions, saying he will discuss stimulus measures with the finance minister. Europe also has to fear another refugee crisis now after Turkey “opened” its borders in what looks like an attempt to force Nato’s hand over Turkey’s action in Syria. Against that background the official start of EU trade talks with the U.K. almost seems to fade into the background, but a Bloomberg source story highlighted again that the risk of a breakdown is pretty high, which leaves the risk that the transition period ends in December without a deal in place firmly on the table. Today’s data calendar focuses mainly on final manufacturing PMI readings for February, which are widely expected to confirm preliminary numbers. G7 finance ministers will hold teleconference this week to coordinate their response to the virus outbreak. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
  13. Date : 28th February 2020. “Fear” dominates the market 28th February “Fear” dominates the market – The COVID-19 virus has cropped up in sub-Saharan Africa and New Zealand for the first time. Markets remain firmly in the grip of virus fears and global stock markets continue to sell off globally. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
  14. Date : 24th February 2020 Events to Look Out For Next Week 24th February 2020. *The economic data has been and will continue to be overshadowed by the Covid-19 outbreak. The week ahead starts light, with the German Business Sentiment Index and Chinese Retail Sales on Monday. Leading indicators dominate the releases, but the event of the week is the US GDP and Consumer Confidence, which should shed light on whether the epidemic is visible in the data globally. Monday – 24 February 2020 * Japan – Emperor’s Birthday * Retail Sales (CNY, GMT N/A) – China’s retail trade growth stood at 8 percent year-on-year in December 2019. However a strong decline is expected for January, following the recent releases indicating that new car sales plunged 92% in China in February and airline traffic is expected to post the first drop since 2011 amid heavy virus containment measures in China. * German IFO (EUR, GMT 09:00) – The German Business Sentiment Index released by the CESifo Group is closely watched as an early indicator of current conditions and business expectations in Germany. February’s numbers are expected to incline. Tuesday – 25 February 2020 * Leading Economic Index (JPY, GMT 05:00) – The index is expected to show no change in the outlook of the Japanese economy and stand at 91.6. * Gross Domestic Product (EUR, GMT 07:00) – German GDP is expected to have fallen by 0.3% on an annualized rate in the last quarter of the year, compared to 1.0% growth in Q3. * Conference Board Consumer Confidence (USD, GMT 15:00) – Consumer Confidence is expected to have increased to 132.4 compared to 131.6 in the previous month. Wednesday – 26 February 2020 * New Home Sales (USD, GMT 15:00) – The housing recovery should extend into 2020, assuming that mortgage rates remain low and Fed policy remains accommodative. The January new home sales should post a 2.3% climb to a 710k pace, after a dip to a 694k rate in December, versus a 12-year high of 730k in September. * Trade Balance (NZD, GMT 21:45) – The Trade Balance measures the difference in value between imported and exported goods and services over the reported period. It will be interesting to see whether the New Zealand trade balance already posts an impact from the epidemic. Thursday- 27 February 2020 * Gross Domestic Product (USD, GMT 13:30) – US preliminary GDP growth for Q4 is expected to trim to 2.0% from 2.1%. * Durable Goods (USD, GMT 13:30) – Durable goods orders are expected to fall -1.5% in January with a -4.7% drop in transportation orders. Defense orders should fall by -29%, following the 101.4% December surge. Boeing orders declined to zero planes, following a dismal 3 planes in January. * Tokyo Core CPI and Unemployment Rate (JPY, GMT 23:30) – Tokyo CPI is usually a good proxy for the Japanese economy’s overall inflation rate. In February, the CPI ex Food is expected to have stood at 0.9% y/y. The unemployment rate is expected to have climbed to 2.3% from 2.2% in December. * Retail Sales (JPY, GMT 23:50) – Following a precipitous 3-month dive in October -December, due to a prolonged hit to exports from soft global demand and a slide in consumer spending following a nationwide tax hike, January’s Retail Sales are expected to drop to -1.1% on a y/y basis. Friday – 28 February 2020 * Unemployment Rate (EUR, GMT 08:55) – The German unemployment rate is expected to have remained at 5% in February. * Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (EUR, GMT 13:00) – The German HICP inflation could rise to 0.3% m/m for February from the drop seen at -0.6% m/m last month. * Gross Domestic Product (CAD, GMT 13:30) – A sharp slowing in Canada’s real GDP growth rate to 1.2% (q/q, saar) is expected in Q4 following the 1.3% Q3 growth. This should not add to the backing for a rate cut for the Bank of Canada. * Personal Income (USD, GMT 13:30) – A 0.3% rise in personal income in January is anticipated after a 0.2% increase in December, alongside a 0.2% rise in consumption that follows a 0.3% December gain. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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